Shack.......WARNING:,,,,,VERY LONG-WINDED,,,so best put aside for week-end reading...
..Notice that I was mentioned in some posts this morning as one of the lonely bulls on this thread. Since it's end-of-month, stock-taking time, thought I'd send you some more bull (no pun intended)....... and please - out of the respect I know you hold for me..g. - don't respond with LOL...(or something even worse).....
Sometime back, I posted something labelled AAC (Alternative Amateur Count).......can't find it anymore, and don't remember what I said ( except that -of course- it was bullish)....This will be an update on my AAC.
First, should tell you where I"m coming from FA-wise. I firmly believe that we are in the very early stages of another economic recovery/boom .......with years of expansion in sales, earnings etc. ahead....which WILL be reflected in stock prices. Therefore, i also believe that last October's stock lows were a major bottom which will not be seen again for some years..........
Consistent with the above, I believe we can now anticipate at least (and initially, over the next year or so) a .50/.62FIB retracement of the bear market decline from 2000. In the major indexes (I'm looking mostly at SPX and Compx) that would take us back to the price levels of late 2001/early 2002.......say, around 1175 SPX and 2000 COMPX.
Also, consistent with all the above......and here's the actual AAC...I would speculate that:
--The March lows initiated a wave III up, from the October lows. ---Within that wave III, we completed waves 1 up and 2 down in March/April:
--Last week, we completed waves i and ii of 3 of III..........
--And we are now in wave iii of 3 of III. ( Won't try to enumerate them here, but all the signs of a iii of 3 of III are now beginning to show up regularly.)
So -apologizing for the excessive verbosity.- that's my AAC........reflecting unabated optimism from an old-timer...... who has a hard time understanding the gloom and doom apparently so prevalent among you young whipper-snappers <VBG> |
