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Pastimes : SARS - what next?
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (491)5/30/2003 8:14:34 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (3) of 1070
 
Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs:
x = 10 deaths.
Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666]
.28 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[745]

On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week.
x = 10 deaths.
z = early days, fewer than 10 per week.
26 Feb z
..5 Mar z
12 Mar z
19 Mar z
26 Mar x
...2 Apr xxx
...9 Apr xxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxx
.28 May xxxxxxxx

Now for a long, slow process of attrition as the sick die and recover [with damage].

It seems that sars has been defeated, with only Taiwan still in the out of control phase, but rapidly becoming controlled - especially with other places showing control is possible, they'll be able to do it.

October will be the test of success. Will the residual disease escape in the colder days of oncoming winter? I guess not.

Mqurice
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