energyplay, <<The crash is a process, and some of it has already happend. The BKs have occured, assests sold to new owners, fraudsters have trail dates sets, innocent already lost money, and are back to 'Bank of Mattress', wheat separated from chaff, new crop planted.
I will bet the dollar does not go under $1.55 per Euro - that's another 30% not 50%
Somewere about $1.25- $1.30 will change the current account pretty quickly, but I expect some overshoot.
I think gold will go to $430 -$520 (a big range) but won't go much over $650. The mining companies like NEM will double or triple in price, but that's about it...
I guess my view of the bad times isn't someone in the hospital in intensive care after falling off a cliff, but more like a college kid who drank way too much and is now worshiping the porceilan throne and FEELS like they are going to die, but will recover in 48 hours... >>
I agree with all that you posted, but I build my case around:
(a) Bond bubble (bigger than stock bubble),
(b) Refi bubble (bigger still than stock bubble),
(c) Monetary printing bubble, resulting in inflation showing up in end-user prices,
(d) Continuing financing required for wat-wot, ss/pension, bigger still government bubbles,
(e) Old Europe printing a few bubbles in order to incorporate New Europe(no, the US is simply too far away for the necessary tasks),
(f) All developed nations printing to counteract 'productivity' bubble effects,
(g) Competitive devaluation, decreased global trade, or global equalization of cost/price effects,
(h) Expectation of demographic-driven baby-boom bubble resultant changes, and
(i) Eventually, the mother of all bubble cures, god awful interest rate increases and credit crunch.
It will be difficult to reach equilibrium state when bubbles, echo-bubbles, reverberating bubbles, and new bubbles are going boom and then kaboom in sequence, as in demolition of a building by timed explosive charges, until all rubble are resting at ground floor level.
The truly awesome Big Bang is still in our future, and so the genuine shock is still ahead of us.
Chugs, Jay |
