P&S and STO Death Blow's Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: Lone Ranger who wrote (30032)	6/1/2003 8:29:43 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (2) of 30712

don't feel bad about missing retraces....this has been going on since last year when i posted the first one....it went against all guru's at the time so its natural that even though folks watched it right it front of their eyes as it unfolded.....the "majority" still didn't believe it because the "crowd" was looking the other way..... and most are "afraid" to go against the crowd....when actually.....its something a good trader has got to learn do.... a perfect example...last july..... heres what i was seeing..... Message 17682263 Message 17680549 Message 17682412 Message 17621103 Message 17665487 heres what the crowd was looking at..seeing this thread is the most popular thread....and its "not" just about zeev...you see the same views posted all over by folks with links to other guru's or sites or links by what the experts say....thats what builds "crowd mentality"....just using this as an example..... Message 17673804 Message 17659063 and then i made this post looking out past the dump...... Message 17680672 Message 17694856 what actually happened......"july 24th" we hit a 1192 "low" and ran to 1421 in august...... the "crowd" was looking the other way even though the retrace was there for all to see... Message 17680526 its all old news now....but the point is the same....because this also happened in november when i told shorts they were going to get "toasted" but the "crowd" saw a run for the hills call.....or links from other guru's in the bear camp.... in december i made an outlook for 2003 calling for a 1700's high the first half because it "had" to be off a war rally....i just didn't know when the war would start....so before the war i just followed another retrace down..... the crowd was looking for a nassacre leading to 950.....total opposite of what retraces showed.....they should have been looking for that "last year" on the way to 1100...but instead last year during that big fall the bias was bullish looking for 1500-1700's as a high....we are doing that now this year.... as the "crowd" looks for 950..... get the picture...... seems the "crowd" is always behind the curve.....and thats the markets way of fleecing the "herd" who follow blindly....its real obvious....but the "crowd" will "never" change and learn to be original thinkers because thats too hard to do and takes too much work and balls to be your own thinker..... i found out last year i wasted my time showing the 'crowd" a different way.....i thought i would have better luck with folks in pm.... but once again...even the majority in pm who saw 4 retraces and knew the target on any break of the retrace or even the "end" of the one we were following to april....the target was a rally to 1700's.....i saw some of them posting on threads going directly against what they saw....because the crowd showed something different.....the crowd again was wrong..... i learned over the last year.....you can't "change" crowd mentality.....its impossible.....and i wasted alot of time trying to convince others of this fault in the human thinking.... so...i'm saving my work now for only a "few" in pm who i have found to be "original" thinkers and won't be swayed by these threads again...... and really i have no choice....because if i put up retraces again here....and they get popular....and the crowd finally catches on....i would have no choice but to "fade" my own views.....meaning i would have to post something....and then do the opposite of what i say....and thats not right....the whole market is based on do the opposite of the crowd..... and i don't need the hassle again like what happened in november when i had to go against the "majority" on my own thread.....cause it will happen again.....trends change...but most people don't change with them..... this is fascinating stuff this market and human nature....for those that don't believe crowd mentality exists....well...it was proven here....and thats obvious.... a simple test for anybody...just be honest with yourself....if you saw the retrace working last year....but you didn't believe it...."why not"....was it because of another person who was going against it....or was it just to foolish in your eyes to work like it did..... also....why didn't you believe this rally.....was it because others in the majority were against it and very vocal in their stance that this can't happen like this...... if the above fits you.....you are part of the "sheep" mentality....and are not skilled enough in this market to trust yourself..... i just wonder how many will learn from it.....knowing history.....my guess is very few..... bubbles retrace......thats a fact.....after the initial retrace....theres also an aftermath to that retrace.... history is doing it again.....and just seeing the opinions from the crowd on these threads..... its working just like history shows it would..... non belief of whats going on by the majority......

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