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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (34633)6/2/2003 12:20:54 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
<<Japanese over the past decade>> Japan doesn't serve as an example and here is why:

As the most inflated economy on Earth (the land of the five-dollar coke and the 3-dollar orange), had to deflate earlier and harder than anyone else.

Obviously, the poster boy of the economy with capital but without economic activity. See how its economic activity emigrated or evaporated: The country started dismantling its factories and re-assembling all over S.E. Asia in the 90's. The trend continued now directed to China.

Left by itself, it is managing a slow and steadily return to the insignificance it came from. Japan was punching way above its weight. A tiny, island, tiny population and closed society which for a very brief period of time, shone bright and then is fading away. Japan couldn't create its own sphere in Asia. (By the way this entity we call Asia is just a geographical short hand. It doesn't exist in reality. It is the most diversified bunch of countries put together.) Hence Japan could not do what the EU has done neither what the US intend to do.

Now it is the time of Euroland and the US to return to its "natural size". They won't just export factories as Japan did. They want to do a British empire. Empire gone, but still has economic punch.

Europe will not export the factories but roll them over to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, but keep those countries within the EU. The US is hard at work to do the same with LATAM with NAFTA.
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