Erbitux results:
1. In refractory metastatic CC data are in line with what was expected. For this population ~20% response rate, 4 months in median TTP, and ~30% survival at 12 months is as good as one can get, at this point. Because this was third line therapy or last resource approach luck of the chemo arm should not be seen as big defiance. Maybe some other modality (Oxali + something) can demonstrate similar results as this combination, but this is not the point of the trial. Conclusion of the trial is that even when pts progress on Irino containing regime, there is hope for some pts by adding anti-egf. It is clear, regardless that Erbitux alone show some response (but very little on TTP and survival, the some conclusion from IMCL US trial), that Irino is main factor for this benefit and anti-EGF bring protection and extension of this benefit (lower resistance rate).
The main question is can Erbitux bring similar or better benefit for second line regime (with oxali or irino, early stage metastatic CC), or maybe even for first line therapy, like Avastin. Street, by enthusiasm which they are biding IMCL stock price, suggest that it may. Time will tell.
Based on Iressa data from PII (but very small trial) seams that anti-egf have synergy with chemo:
<<Data released on Sunday found that when combined with the chemotherapy folfox for advanced colon cancer, Iressa helped shrink tumors in 75 percent of 16 patients tested who had not previously received any form of treatment.
Folfox chemotherapy alone was effective at shrinking tumors in 38 percent of patients, researchers said on Sunday at a meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago.>>
2. Intriguing results were first line in chemo combination for metastatic NSCLC. Here they have clear synergy between Erbitux and chemo. So, it may be cancer biology and/or chemo action mode.
<<Preliminary data in 61 patients showed that 53 percent of those treated with Erbitux and the chemotherapies cisplatin and vinorelbine saw their tumors shrink, compared with 32 percent of patients who had chemotherapy alone.>>
Because none of the anti-egf candidates show strong activity as single agent, difference and advantage one over another may be hard to predict. However, it may turn out that anti-egf approach will be comparable to Avastin results in CC. This will open new opportunity, and facilitate combination of this two target in fight against cancer.
IMCL stock price is ahead of itself. But, if DNA got $20B for Avastin, IMCL/BMY can get few extra bucks one day.
Miljenko |
