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Technology Stocks : Systemsoft Inc. (SYSF)
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To: Jimbo Cobb who wrote (133)7/24/1996 9:59:00 PM
From: Jim Roof   of 3529
 
Mark:

Well, I need a little luck now and then too!

I want to point out a possible scenario that may be developing in SYSF that, if I am correct, might help you in your trading decisions.

I think that SYSF is consolidating in this range. After a big downside move there will be the inevitable upswing (that took prices to 23) and then a series of ups and downs that TYPICALLY have less range over time creating a kind of shape bounded by converging lines in the chart (a triangle). Triangle, regardless of where they appear in the chart (up or down, bull or bear), have a 75% chance of resulting in a continuation of the trend that preceded their formation.

After a reversal top the chances of continuation are much greater. If SYSF trades as high as 20-21 in the next few days (and I think it may), a good tactic might be a stop around 18. I do not think that a heavy downdraft in SYSF will be saved on a third attempt to break support at 15-16. I know that it bounced well today but the next critical trading zone for SYSF would actually be at about 17 (this would represent the bottom trendline of the triangle consolidation). If SYSF violated this line and closes clearly below it (at least one point) then the prices will be almost sure to reach 12.

Just want you to be on your toes.

Jim
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