almost no dollar correction versus Asians so far
when the Asian currencies adjust, then Fed tactics will have to change
they will face imported price inflation and systemic US broader price inflation
we will still see a mix of price deflation and price inflation, but by 2005 we will see more inflation than deflation among prices
I always try to distinguish between monetary inflation (which has not stopped on a massive level) and price inflation or deflation (each of which is caused by monetary and credit expansion)
maybe I should write an article specically to clarify the following:
Our economic advisors and observers are befuddled by inflation, embarrassed by their inability to distinguish among inflation, deflation, disinflation, reflation, stagflation, declining asset values, liquidity, credit, monetization, and money supply. Liquidity is a political euphemism for credit, intended to keep the public in the dark. They insist on thinking in aggregate terms, when we now see price deflation and price inflation simultaneously in separate sectors. The credit engines are stalled in the deflating sectors where production suffers from overcapacity, and are working feverishly in the inflating sectors where unproductive enlargement of asset-based bubbles continues. Real estate is now the malignant bubble in the economy, yet it is seen as a savior from a recession. How short-sighted.
/ jim |
