Now, all bets are off.
Al Qaeda has shown that they can still launch major attacks, but in doing so they are fouling their own nest. SA is obviously their power base, and directly making war on the establishment is extremely dangerous for them.
Indonesia is an AQ dream: a huge Muslim country with lots of radical Muslim feeling, im the midst of religious turmoil, somewhat sympathetic government, but order broken down in many areas. A perfect place to plot their murderous conspiracies. AQ destroys a disco in Bali, killing several hundred westerners, mostly Australian, but dealing a huge blow to tourism, a major source of foreign exchange for a strapped Indonesia. Now the authorities become AQ's enemies.
In games I play (chess & backgammon) you sometimes attack out of strength, sometimes out of weakness. As impressive as the individual attacks may be, I think these are made from weakness, and have weakened AQ's security substantially.
Governments around the world are now sensitive to the fact that aiding AQ and similar groups may draw American attention, and for AQ to set fire to their two best safe houses shows some desperation.
The security forces that have guarded the U.S. and others (knock on wood) deserve a lot of credit. That major bust of a European AQ ring probably helped convince AQ to limit their outreach.
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