From Niman (I think Dr. Henry Niman)>>What Has Changed? Two SARS Etiologies?
« on: Today at 09:53:00am »
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There has been a dramatic change in Mortality Rates in
mainland China, and now Taiwan is following suit. In
Toronto, Singapore, Hanoi, and Hong Kong, mortality rates
based on outcomes has been remarkably stable over the past
2 1/2 months (since April 10, when WHO began releasing
data on the number of recovered patients). Hanoi's rate
started and ended low (single digits), but the other major sites
(Toronto, Singapore, Hong Kong) have been in the 15-
20% range. All of these regions have been firmly linked to
the Metropole Hotel and all SARS coronavirus isolates have
the 5 Metropole Hotel linked mutations (in addition to the
29 nt deletion).
Mainland China in contrast, had a high mortality rate
initially (up to 33% if the pre-April 19 numbers are
excluded). The rate peaked on May 2 and began gradually
dropping to less than 20% on May 17 and the steadily
declining to single digits yesterday. All of the Beijing
isolates have the 29 nt deletion, but none of the 5
Metropole Hotel mutations have been reported.
Taiwan's first wave of infections had characteristics
similar to those seen in locations infected with the virus
with the Metropole mutations (and TW1 had the 5
mutations). The second wave however, produced a very high
mortality rate (greater than 45% on May 20). The rate began
to decline slowly, but yesterday the rate fell from over
37% to 22.95%, literally overnight, I have not seen any
sequence data on the virus that caused the second wave of
infections.
Alternatively, the dramatic decline in mortality rates in
mainland China and Taiwan could be due to the localities
playing catch-up. When patients began dying in large
numbers, the mortality rate increased dramatically because
there were few initial discharges because many were not
diagnosed. This was followed by an over- diagnosis, so many
were counted who did not really have SARS and now they are
being discharged, giving the false indication of a falling
mortality rate.
Testing these newly discharged patients for antibody to the
SARS virus would resolve the mis-diagnosis issue, and
sequencing more isolates from the regions generating an
initial high mortality rate could address the issue of more
than one SARS disease produced by viral sub-types.
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niman
Member
Posts: 19
Re:What Has Changed? Two SARS Etiologies?
« Reply #1 on: Today at 10:05:10am »
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Here are Mortality Rates caluculted in the past 30 days:
Date Day HK Can Sing China Hanoi Taiwan ex China
June 04 17.4% 20.4% 15.8% 9.6% 7.9% 22.9% 17.5%
June 03 17.6% 21.1% 15.8% 10.0% 7.9% 37.3% 18.6%
June 02 17.6% 20.5% 15.8% 10.3% 7.9% 37.7% 18.6%
May 31 17.5% 20.5% 15.8% 10.7% 7.9% 38.6% 18.6%
May 30 17.4% 20.0% 15.8% 11.1% 7.9% 39.3% 18.5%
May 29 17.3% 18.8% 15.8% 11.7% 7.9% 39.9% 18.4%
May 28 17.3% 19.0% 15.8% 12.1% 7.9% 42.0% 18.5%
May 27 17.3% 19.0% 16.0% 12.4% 7.9% 40.4% 18.3%
May 26 18.6% 19.1% 16.0% 13.0% 7.9% 39.1% 18.2%
May 24 17.0% 17.4% 16.0% 13.7% 7.9% 42.3% 17.8%
May 23 17.2% 17.4% 16.0% 14.5% 7.9% 42.3% 17.8%
May 22 17.1% 17.4% 15.2% 15.2% 7.9% 44.8% 17.9%
May 21 17.1% 17.8% 14.8% 16.2% 7.9% 44.8% 17.5%
May 20 17.1% 17.8% 14.8% 17.1% 7.9% 45.2% 17.5%
May 19 17.1% 17.8% 14.9% 18.2% 7.9% 43.2% 17.2%
May 17 16.9% 17.8% 15.1% 20.0% 7.9% 44.4% 17.0%
May 16 16.9% 17.8% 15.1% 20.6% 7.9% 43.2% 17.0%
May 15 16.8% 17.7% 15.1% 22.3% 7.9% 44.1% 17.0%
May 14 16.8% 18.1% 15.1% 23.1% 7.9% 44.1% 16.7%
May 13 17.1% 18.2% 15.1% 24.0% 7.9% 44.4% 16.8%
May 12 17.1% 17.8% 15.1% 25.3% 7.9% 43.5% 16.9%
May 10 17.0% 18.5% 15.1% 26.2% 7.9% 29.7% 16.6%
May 09 16.7% 19.0% 15.0% 27.2% 7.9% 33.3% 16.6%
May 08 17.1% 18.8% 15.0% 29.0% 7.9% 33.3% 16.5%
May 07 17.2% 17.8% 15.3% 30.7% 7.9% 29.7% 16.5%
May 06 16.8% 19.1% 15.3% 31.8% 7.9% 28.6% 16.5%
May 05 16.7% 19.1% 14.9% 32.5% 7.9% 24.2% 16.2%<<
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