MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: High-Tech East who wrote (17267)	6/5/2003 11:48:33 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) of 19219

No stops- I only employ end of day close. I have the choice to get out mid-day price in Dynamic Series, but this screws up my own market analysis. The last hour of the market is most important and is tell all. So- what did today (let alone this week) tell me? The same thing it told me in reverse going into the Sept 21, 2001 low. When we get to triple overbought levels on the 5 day RSI - let alone the more stringent test the 5 week RSI - we are ready to reverse course. One micro-example is the price action of RUT- up what 12 days in a row now? The RUT is quadruple overbought on BOTH the 5 day and 5 week RSI... A pullback is imminent- and for me the return positioned short far exceeds the return staying long - only for the short run. And the only way to get the most return on your risk is to be positioned in the opposite direction where the decision is most painful BEFORE the move. I am taking the risk that I may be dead wrong and early tomorrow. But if I am wrong early, I will then go to work and employ leverage in the use of put options... just like I did call options prior to the 2 bottoms in July and Oct 2002 and March 2003. (Individual stocks Sep 2001) I am still very Bullish intermediate and long term. Short term just extremely Bearish. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a 90% downside volume day some time within the next week. This would be extremely healthy for the market. Make no mistake - tomorrow is a pivotal day.

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