I do not understand why you are talking about Indiplon *disaster*, and what you make of it?
So far NBIX was managing their cash requirement and expense very well. Someone else was paying for programs and clinical expense, except Indoplan. It is clear that great return one can achieve if he push program further down the line.
If NBIX move several program (orexin, MSH, MC-4R, cytokines) into clinic, and in addition with current candidates ongoing trials cash burn will accelerate. While payments from PFE will help I do not think that it will be sufficient, IF NBIX start to built strong commercial infrastructure as well. Indoplan revenue from 2005 and after may start to generate positive return (profitability), but I do not think that they have luxury to wait and see how will Indiplon work. Also, extra cash on balance sheet will give them flexibility to look after small bios and/or interesting candidates.
NBIX show that bios can excellently execute timing of the business plan, move into next step and update infrastructure when business as for it. They can rise $600m or even $1b, but they chose $200m. It confirms confidence in Indiplon.
Bottom line, at this time I do not expect that Indiplon will bring them to sufficiently cash positive. They need more, imo.
Miljenko |
