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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject6/7/2003 2:31:51 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Have we Passed Peak Oil?

Between 1981 and 1991, world oil reserves increased by almost 50%. Curiously all of this increase occurred among OPEC members. Non-OPEC reserves actually fell.

Some say that the increase in reserves in OPEC was bogus and simply an attempt by OPEC members to show large reserves so they can negotiate a larger piece of output versus other members.

In the decade from 1991 to 2001, OPEC did not play this game and reserves were almost unchanged. Total world reserves were slightly up from 1991 to 2001. This was because the former Soviet Union countries whose reserves were unknown joined in. If it were not for them reserves would have fallen.

It is clear to me that we have passed peak oil around the world. If the OPEC reserve additions during the '80s turn out to be mostly bogus (as I believe) we may be well past the peak.

Here is a site with very clear numbers of oil reserves for the last couple of decades from Maurice's old firm:

bp.com
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