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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10005)	6/7/2003 4:45:44 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95622

Let's try this "fixed font" routine again with earnings estimates this time. Let's compare the past 6 months. The table below shows the difference over that period. Looking at the bottom line there is little to get excited about, but as we all know, the Group "took off like a rocket" the past 2 weeks. The "market" must know something that the rest of us don't. Nine of the 28 stocks in the Group, including AMAT, have decreased their earnings estimate for "next year". That doesn't look like a "near term" upswing in business outlook to me. To be fair, for the Group the "next year" earnings are up 5.48, but that is a pretty small number compared to the "good times" in years past. DATA FROM FIRST CALL 12/16/02 6/7/03 EARNINGS EST EARNINGS EST EARNINGS CHG SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR AMAT 0.20 0.50 0.13 0.45 -0.07 -0.05 ASML -0.23 0.10 -0.16 0.40 0.07 0.30 ASYT -0.77 0.15 -1.00 0.51 -0.23 0.36 ATMI -0.31 0.02 0.01 0.62 0.32 0.60 BRKS -0.82 0.40 -1.65 0.23 -0.83 -0.17 CMOS -0.81 -0.04 -1.43 -0.42 -0.62 -0.38 COHU -0.13 -0.19 -0.08 0.52 0.05 0.71 CYMI 0.38 0.42 -0.36 1.06 -0.74 0.64 DPMI -1.26 0.40 -2.56 -0.43 -1.30 -0.83 EGLS -2.94 -2.24 -2.34 -1.26 0.60 0.98 FSII -1.27 0.58 -1.26 0.62 0.01 0.04 HELX -0.49 -0.09 -0.06 0.44 0.43 0.53 KLAC 0.64 1.09 0.66 1.04 0.02 -0.05 KLIC -1.12 -0.04 -1.11 0.07 0.01 0.11 LRCX 0.03 0.39 0.10 0.32 0.07 -0.07 LTXX -0.85 -0.22 -0.91 -0.35 -0.06 -0.13 MTSN -2.05 -1.10 -0.57 -0.01 1.48 1.09 NANO 0.27 0.43 0.26 0.81 -0.01 0.38 NVLS 0.65 1.20 -0.89 0.57 -1.54 -0.63 PHTN -0.28 0.35 -0.32 0.65 -0.04 0.30 PLAB -0.21 0.51 -0.30 0.20 -0.09 -0.31 SFAM -1.18 -0.30 -0.57 0.47 0.61 0.77 SMTL -0.78 -0.23 -0.08 0.36 0.70 0.59 TER -0.11 0.27 0.24 0.70 0.35 0.43 TGAL -0.36 0.38 0.45 0.62 0.81 0.24 UTEK -0.78 -0.26 -0.78 -0.23 0.00 0.03 VECO -0.11 0.26 -0.11 0.26 0.00 0.00 WFR -0.36 0.38 -0.36 0.38 0.00 0.00 TOTAL -15.05 3.12 -15.05 8.60 0.00 5.48

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