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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: Tomas who wrote (23507)6/7/2003 5:03:33 PM
From: Tomas  Read Replies (1) of 206089
 
Alberta gas curve going downwards
Chief regulator predicts output fall amid boom in the oil sands

Upstream, June 6
By Dann Rogers

The chief regulator in the energy-rich Canadian province of Alberta said annual natural gas production will peak this year and begin falling in 2004 because of smaller pools and steeper decline rates.

Also weighing on output in the short-term is poor weather, which is hindering drillers from gaining access to some areas and the perennial labour shortage as workers opt for the security of oil sands projects over the cyclical drilling sector.

"We're in a downward trend," said Andrew Burrowes of the Alberta Energy & Utilities Board (AEUB) while releasing the regulator's annual assessment of the province's hydrocarbon energy production and reserves. "The long-term projection is for a decline in our gas reserves and production," he added.

Canadian exports have been instrumental in stabilising US gas prices over the past 15 years because it supplies about three-quarters of the growth in US demand.

Alberta produces about 5 trillion cubic feet of Canada's annual output of 7 Tcf, with half of that exported to the US, accounting for 94% of US imports and about 15% of the 23.5 Tcf consumed annually in the US.

Analysts said falling Canadian output will lead to sustained higher North American prices in the next few years until stranded Arctic gas is brought on stream and additional liquified natural gas is imported from international producers.

Alberta natural gas reserves at the end of 2002 were 42 Tcf, with new reserves adding 105.7% of 2002 production. That compares with 67% replacement in 2001. US reserves are estimated at 183 Tcf.

While natural gas and conventional oil production are entering their twilight years in Alberta, synthetic crude output from the vast oil sands reserves in the northern part of the province will keep growing, said the regulator.

Oil sands production rose 14% in the past year to 303 million barrels, while conventional output in Alberta fell 8% during the same period to 241 million barrels.
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