With the SOX closing at 388 and change, the first area of support may be at 378, but to me the 340 to 360 area is a stronger first area of support.
Now I know those who are most bullish would say that stock prices today for the group while higher than they were in October 2002 are much lower than 2000. Despite the fall in earnings expectations shown in your last table perhaps with a strong economic recovery there may be plenty of upside ahead.
I think the key word here is "strong". From what I have seen in the media, no one is looking for a strong recovery. So far the projections seem to be for a rather mild recovery. If that is the case, the earnings projections will increase rather slowly as time progresses.
Just to show an example of how stagnant the semi-equip business is, the following 2 data points are from Feb 02 and June 03, a period of about 16 months Not much change.
2/14/02 This year -15.77, next year 10.51, sum -5.26
6/7/03 This year -13.80, next year 8.19, sum -5.61
As a matter of fact, lets go back to the estimate in September of 01
9/13/01 This year -3.11, next year 8.32, sum 5.21
You know the old saying "The more things change, the more they stay the same."<g>
Don |
