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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 298.01-0.5%Dec 15 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10021)6/8/2003 8:09:48 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 95580
 
RE: "I think the key word here is "strong"."

Prices depend primarily on a discounted future earnings flow model. While the recovery is not likely to be strong for a while, the discount factor, "interest rates", is very low and seems to be headed lower. With very low interest rates, the strength of the recovery is less important, relatively, than the duration of the recovery and its eventual peak. Also, prices depend more on the confidence one has in future earnings predictions than the magnitude of the predictions.
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