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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10022)	6/8/2003 11:58:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) of 95574

I don't disagree with anything you said, but time is an important element. The question is - "when" are the "good times" coming? Last year, 2002, in the first part of the year, most prognostications were for recovery in the last half of 2002. Then in about July, the realization hit that 2002 was a "goner" and the market "tanked" until 9 October. Now we are approaching July 2003 and the economy is slowly growing, but certainly not at the rate everyone would like. In the past 2 weeks however, the market upswing has been spectacular. The upward pace is unsustainable. The question is - when will it consolidate and at what level? In the meantime the larger question of when business will upturn for the semi-equips remains an open issue. The only thing we know for sure is that we are 1 year closer to the recovery than we were last year at this time.<g> Don

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