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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 7.210

+1.8%

10:55 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (25168)	6/10/2003 11:49:40 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) of 34857

The CC Slacker, << Did you understand the reasoning behind the upside? >> No I really didn't and several analysts including Paul Sagawa tried to get at that. << They seemed to rule out a general improvement in the industry and a one-off revenue surprise. That seems to just leave an increased marketshare....but I never heard them say that. >> My sense is that everything just clicked into place pretty well relative across hardware/software GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA to conservative forecast rendered at the start of the quarter. It also seems that they are slowly, surely, gaining market share, as they have been for some time spreading the gap between themselves and others and slightly narrowing Ericsson's substantial lead on them and everyone else. << an increased marketshare would seem to be more of a recurring phenomenon, but I didn't sense much optimism about the rest of the year for the networks division. >> I think they are just being sensibly cautious. The Europeans head for vacation in a few weeks, and it is really tough to get visibility on infra drift till mid-September as a consequence. Also possible that Olli-Pekka might not have wanted to steal any thunder from Jorma or Sari at the strategy update. << The handset side seemed to come in about as expected. The ASP decline is worrisome but we need to see a quarter without SARS and the decline in the dollar to get a better picture. >> SARS will go away. Maybe has. Obviously the inventory hangover will take time to work off. I think the China inventory situation goes much deeper than SARS. There is massive oversupply. Hopefully dollar decline ceases and maybe even recovers a bit. The ASP decline is worrisome because it affects everybody potentially. He surely didn't give a lot of detail but Olli-Pekka's CDMA comments could indicate that they are beginning to ship some 1xRTT product. I remain cautious on this however. Best, - Eric -

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