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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call
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To: Win-Lose-Draw who started this subject6/10/2003 3:45:41 PM
From: Softechie  Read Replies (1) of 11447
 
Unemployment will reach 7% soon enough...off-loading high tech jobs to other nations...

Highlights

Updated June 5:
Claims rise 16,000 to 442,000 for week ended May 31, reversing modest downtrend
One-week's data not all that significant, but disappointing nevertheless
4-week moving average edged up to 430,000 from 427,000
Key Factors

Updated June 5:
Still well above 400K consistent with payroll declines.
Above 400K for 16 consecutive weeks.
4-week average up 3,000 to 430K reversing modest downtrend

Big Picture

The labor market remains extremely weak given another large bounce in the longer term downward trend. Initial claims has been above 400K since early Feb -- consistent with payroll declines. The current uptrend in continued claims is worrisome given the downward push left by long term recipients falling out of eligibility. The broader labor measure of payroll growth provides a far clearer view of the entire labor market -- firing and hiring. Bottom line is that profit-led business cost-cutting continues as high productivity growth and weak economic growth leaves no net hiring. Unemployment should continue higher as job-hunters return to the hunt and are met with few offers.
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