I don't know if it is the analysts only, or people in general, but there seems to be more optimism going into another calendar year, every year. I know in my own case last year(2002) that was true. I am normally an optimistic person and for the first part of last year I really felt the semi-equips would gain strength in the second part of the year - boy was I wrong.
I posted in the previous table today the momentum change in analyst expectations in August 2002. I didn't retain earlier data so I can't print it, but I remember earlier in the year(2002) it was much more positive. Also, in a table today, I listed the last 4 weeks of momentum ending this past weekend. More positive upgrades than downgrades were listed. We will have to wait for the data, but I expect that to change in the near future - a continuation of today's downgrades by BofA and AH.
I didn't pay enough attention to the analysts "change of heart" in the middle of last year. That lack of attention cost me a lot of money in the later summer months. I won't make that mistake again. Nobody likes to hear what the analysts have to say, including me, but they obviously have a big impact on the "market" overall. I will be watching carefully in the coming weeks whether the BofA and AH downgrades today were "one of a kind" or if other firms will be "piling on".
Nobody likes to go out on a limb in this business and make predictions, but I think the "good times" aren't here to stay for the forseeable future - more likely a trading range of ups and downs for awhile.
In the article you printed:
"We are coming in a little bit better," he said, noting that the figure would likely be around $1.1 billion, up $100 million from previous views.
That is good news, but it is around a 10 percent increase. I would get much more excited it they said a "300 to 500 million" increase. By the way, I don't know the answer, but what have they spent in the last few years? Is 1.1 Billion an average number or is it down considerably from 2000? Does anyone know?
Don |
