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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: lurqer who wrote (20200)6/10/2003 9:29:33 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (4) of 89467
 
The Tipping Point

While I railed against the Iraq War prior to its commencement, the War has about a 70% approval rating. So what could cause the American people to see the war as the Tar Baby that I’ve been calling it for the better part of a year? In thinking about what could change American’s current opinion, I decided on the slow, but unfortunately very steady rate of American casualties.

So less do a little math. If anyone knows the exact tally of American Iraq War deaths at the time of Bush’s carrier speech – please let me know. For want of a better number, I’m using 138. Since the US does not want to officially declare an end to the war (and then be forced to comply with international standards on the humanitarian treatment of prisoners and the establishment of order in the defeated country), I will use the carrier speech as the de facto end of the war. The speech is a convenient 18 months (78 weeks) prior to the ’04 election. While the current attrition rate of American soldiers may not be indicative of the future, it’s all we now have. What I’m working towards is predicting the time of the 3D – Double Death Day – the day when we have twice the deaths we had when the war was “over”. ‘Could be wrong, but I believe only the most hardened cynical Bush supporter could ignore the obvious significance of doubling the deaths since the “end” of the war. Will 3D be the Tipping Point for the American public to realize that the Administration has been feeding them a line? I don’t know. I do know with the current attrition rate, 3D will come before the election.

Just something to think about.

lurqer
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