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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 338.72+0.3%Dec 23 4:00 PM EST
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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (2572)6/11/2003 3:05:42 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Pete: Thanks. The responses to your post speak volumes to me. Like I said last week, the extreme readings can get more extreme. Right now the four week moving average is a mind numbing 73.8%. The ten week is quite high but not mind numbing yet at 67.64%.

I suspect that the four week moving average has not been this high since 1987 before the crash. It may have reached that high in early 1992. Whatever.

The ten week was above 70% a few times from 1971 through 1984. I believe a close above 70% would represent a strong intermediate sell signal on that measure alone making no reference to Brinker's model but only to my own research. If you sold when the 10 dma reached 70%, you should be able to buy your stocks back at significantly cheaper prices in less than a year according to history from the late 60s to early 80s where these extremes were visited.
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