Harmonic Trading with The Phoenix Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Harmonic Trading with The Phoenix

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To: Jack of All Trades who wrote (744)	6/11/2003 5:50:48 PM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (2) of 941

But getting back to the original theory about the effects of the contract month rollover, (this discussion probably should be over on the old E-Mini thread) the "official" rollover time is at the start of open pit trading tomorrow morning. If the tail was going to wag the dog, here (i.e. - futures determine direction of the cash markets) that sort of thing usually happens in pre-market hours, right? I understand that the COT data shows traders to be net long the E-mini, so they would have to sell June to buy September, which would presumably appear to show downward pressure on the (June) futures up till the cash market open, when the September contract would then be the lead month that everyone would start watching, and there would be buying pressure on the September contract?? My head is spinning. My guess is that there is no massive simultaneous rollover today/tomorrow. Large traders may just hold to expiration and settle in cash to avoid trading costs of flipping to the new front month. Or they have already bought/sold the September contracts in anticipation of holding beyond next week. Hence no discernable impact to the cash markets. At least I have never seen one.

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