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Pastimes : SARS - what next?
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (517)6/12/2003 6:48:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 1070
 
Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs:
x = 10 deaths.
Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666]
.28 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[745]
..4 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[772]
.11 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[789 with no deaths for a day - first time for months] Data from diaspoir.net

On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week.
x = 10 deaths.
z = early days, fewer than 10 per week.
26 Feb z
..5 Mar z
12 Mar z
19 Mar z
26 Mar x
...2 Apr xxx
...9 Apr xxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx
..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx
.14 May xxxxxxxxx
.21 May xxxxxxxx
.28 May xxxxxxxx
..4 June xxx
11 June xx

The worldwide death rate seems most likely to be 10%, depending on how well the remaining people recover. With 1100 still infected, there should be about another 100 die over the next 5 weeks for a worldwide total of about 900 dead. No doubt the survivors have suffered some permanent damage from such a traumatic illness, so it's been quite a horror story, but thankfully closing [fingers crossed].

If the blase attitude initially, when the death rate was incorrectly thought to be 3% had not led people to take Sars less seriously, the problem might have been less disastrous.

Congratulations are due primarly to Singapore and Vietnam and the wooden spoon award for klutziness goes to Canada. Taiwan was really dopey to be so infected so late in the story.

Mqurice
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