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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: reaper who wrote (245547)6/13/2003 12:04:41 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
So tell me, o (proven) swami of the long bond - do you think the long end is just about done here? All the other markets seem to be acting as if the reflation effort is succeeding, and the only reason the long bond continues to ever lower yields is the momentum (and the continued flight to "safe haven").

At what point do the traders break from the Fed's script and begin to concern themselves with the return-free risk scenario? Their upside is mathematically limited to a few hundred basis points, but downside is pretty much unlimited on an inflation-adjusted basis.

I think we both are convinced that real economic activity will continue to decline for the forseeable future, with continued employment losses and reduced real profitability for corporations, but with "unconventional" monetary devaluation efforts joined around the globe now, what probability would you ascribe to the possibility that global currencies are turned to confetti in a 1970s-style stagflation?

BC
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