Hello Energyplay, Today is a miserable day, continuing for a series of 8 days of constant rain and dark sky, capped by occasional thunder and slashed by intermittent lightening.
I do not mind such days once in a while, because they make the agenda very simple, ‘buy food, rent video, and stay home’.
I started the day, as usual, with my habit of allowing the MS Outlook program to download e-mails, permit the MS Money program to update the situation of selected wealth embodiments foraging in various danger spots and hazard space, while I use MS IE program to cycle through all the predetermined websites for facts, news, analysis, commentary, and eventually end up here at SI, for the truth(s). I settle here on BBR to make a journal entry only after silently moving through half a dozen discussion threads to get a sense of what the excitements are, arguments could be, fears appear to be, and electorates’ thinking may be,
All the talk from all sources about correction of the energy complex pricing got me concerned, because I am as liable to panic as the next fellow facing execution in the subsequent 24 hours.
To better focus the feeling of dread and sense of doom, I click on my MS Money program window in a hurry to inspect the expected unfathomable damage and the anticipated deep wounds.
After allowing my eyes to come into better focus, I realized that while my physical gold is down for the week, and my Japanese Yen loan is up for the month, my gold shares are behaving well, even as my energy units are taking a breather, while my emerging market beasts are poking their heads out, even my NTL/Global Crossing defaulted bonds are flapping their tails, non-USD currencies are up, bonds are rock solid high, real estate is sturdily unreal, and I my YTD NAV is up by a happy 8.13%, compared to satisfactory June 5th reading of 7.42% achamchen.com .
An aside and explanation, as each of us are necessarily in our own somewhat unique situation. I do not want to afford to suffer a 2% loss during the current scene of the play, as opposed to the 1999 chapter of the Script when a 2% loss prospect is counter-balanced with a 20% gain hope, and so I am depending on my non-genius NToeAwsBe (natural trades, obvious exchanges, apparent wagers, sure bets) asset allocation selection to see me through, and not relying on my less-than-brilliant trading skills for salvation.
My allocation to NG is at a point where I am happy to double, and if opportune, can triple the current allocation, and so I welcome the NG correction, and in fact, the deeper the correction, the happier I am, as it would give me an NToeAwsBe exit to my dilemma of not knowing what to sell my non-USD currencies in exchange for what non-money.
Here is the script I more or less followed:
Late 1998 – Real estate and normal equity to iDotCom equity shift
Late 1999 – iDotCom equity to USD cash move, shorting NEM puts
2000 – USD cash to ladder-ed treasury strips run in major tranches, and to gold equity migration in small amounts, and short NEM puts
2001 – USD to Euro shift, and shorting NEM puts
2002 – USD to AUD exchange, gold equity to physical gold translation, and shorting NEM puts
2003 – Euro to CAD run, US treasury strips to energy complex dash, USD to emerging market skip, and shorting NEM puts, straddling FCX, HMY, GFI, AEM, and even some tech equities.
… and now, I must look all about, around and around, to guess at which path to scamper on.
I believe we are in a secular bear market for most USD-space financial assets, and will continue to be in a secular bull exchange for things. I think this has to be the case if indeed we are promised for-as-long-as-possible very low risk-free rate of return and are facing for-a-good-long-time return-free risk of investment as represented by clashing currencies and grinding financial markets.
In the mean nasty time, I am puzzled, because everything is up, good cheers are all about, even as prospect for active income has never looked worse, and threat of redistribution becomes more imminent.
I ask myself the obvious question, 'what the ph*cking ph*ck is wrong with this ph*cking unreal picture'.
We appear to be printing ourselves to everlasting prosperity, by the figurative you selling the metaphoric me your energy shares, and the not-literal me offloading on the abstract you my biotech equity, and then we get to reverse the trades, and later, I can flip burgers for you and you can detail the SUV for me, and all the while, suffering the various not so ingenious redistribution schemes put in our way.
Something is wrong. What is wrong, when we figure it out, will be our continuing Script.
Chugs, Jay |
