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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10121)	6/14/2003 12:56:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 95526

RE: "...ASML, 16 to 14 percent..." Not too long ago, the % was as high as 28, if I remember correctly. I would like some comment, but the current % reeks of generals fighting the last war. 248 nanometer lithography tools were initially thought to be targeted at the 250 nanometer linewidth area. Through techniques such as optical proximity correction (OPC) and phase shifting, the 248 nanometer tools have been extended to 100 nanometer linewidths. Growth for lithography tool sales should have been at the slowest rate during this extended use of 248 nanometer tools. 193 nanometer tools are the work horses for 90 nanometer linewidths. They are projected for 65 nanometers and possibly 45. Then 157 nanometer tools or EUV tools are candidates to take over. In any case, it seems to me that revenue rates will need to accelerate from this slow 248 nanometer period which, in a sense, borrowed from the future.

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