In Game of Expectations, Bush Usually Wins
By Dana Milbank
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, June 8, 2003; Page A05
With striking clarity, President Bush last week acknowledged an attribute his opponents have long assigned him. "I am the master of low expectations," he said.
Ironically, the assessment was offered aboard Air Force One as Bush left Jordan on Wednesday after a summit that raised the exceptionally high expectation that a Middle East peace deal, including an independent Palestinian state, was within reach by 2005. And, true to form, Bush offered a modest definition of his expectations for the talks -- "I was hoping to have honest dialogues" -- and said those expectations were met.
Bush aides say the rare moment of introspection by Bush was intended in a lighthearted manner -- but they acknowledge that Bush has thrived by being, as he memorably put it on the eve of the 2000 election, "misunderestimated." His continued success over the next 17 months and his reelection likely depend on his ability to meet -- and exceed -- ever-rising expectations.
For Bush, lowering the standards for success is becoming increasingly difficult. After raising expectations that Iraq would smoothly shift to stability and that weapons of mass destruction would be found in abundance, he is so far unable to meet those standards. By celebrating the $350 billion tax cut package as the balm the economy needs, he has raised hopes for an economic surge. And by plunging into Middle East peace negotiations after saying he would do so only if the time was right, he has encouraged a belief that the time is, in fact, right for peace.
Then there is the campaign for next year's election, in which Bush is the prohibitive favorite and his opponents are the ones fighting questions about their capabilities -- and therefore in a better position to exceed expectations.
"What he is doing systematically now is trying to reduce the expectations people have about what he's going to deliver," said Thomas E. Mann, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution. "It's worked exceptionally well. But in the end, reality counts. He can do whatever he wants with expectations on domestic and foreign policy, but if the economy is sluggish and the aftermath of Iraq sours, those are the realities he will face."
Bush's political foes are grudgingly impressed by his ability to set low requirements for his success -- sometimes retroactively. "They created the science of setting the bar low," said John Weaver, the strategist behind the primary challenge to Bush by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). "In fact, they dug a trench and set the bar in it, and he's able to walk over it. They should get some credit for that. He's been able to get away with that."
Bush aides agree that he has benefited from low expectations. "He has a history of being underestimated by his opponents," said his spokesman, Ari Fleischer. "He notes it wryly, with a smile, and lets other people figure out the way things are."
Bush has spent much of his life exceeding expectations. As an undergraduate at Yale University, he overcame the suspicion that he was admitted because he was the son of a prominent alumnus, and became a leader of fraternity life. As a baseball team owner, he built a successful franchise despite a belief that he had lackluster business skills and was trading on his father's reputation. In his first gubernatorial race, against Democratic incumbent Ann Richards, he similarly confounded the doubters of his political abilities.
By the time he began his presidential run in June 1999, Bush's first act as a candidate was an exercise in lowering expectations -- playing down his lead in the polls, in fundraising and in endorsements. He dubbed his campaign plane "Great Expectations" and told reporters on the inaugural flight: "Please store your expectations securely in your overhead bins, as they may shift during the trip and may fall and hurt someone -- especially me."
In his presidential campaign, Bush and his aides encouraged the suspicion that he would be a weak debater -- and then performed well in primary debates and, particularly, against Democrat Al Gore. After the divisive electoral recount in Florida, he defied expectations that he had no mandate by pushing a huge tax cut through Congress. And after a brief stumble on the day of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, he dispelled a common concern that he was not prepared to handle an international crisis.
"This is a president who loves to be misunderestimated -- it is so part of his persona," said Rich Bond, a Republican strategist and former party chairman. "It has served to his advantage over and over again."
Most of the time, Bond said, Bush has been blessed by opponents "who think he can't chew gum and be president at the same time. His opponents repeatedly forget he's an astute politician." By raising doubts about Bush's abilities, the opposition makes it easier for Bush to exceed the expectations. And if opponents do not lower expectations, Bush can "create it" himself, Bond added.
Indeed, Bush and his aides often work assiduously to reduce expectations. During last year's midterm congressional elections, for example, Bush aides cited with numbing frequency the historical trends favoring the opposition party in off-year elections.
The management of expectations about the Iraq war was emblematic. In the months before the war, administration officials predicted the conflict would last "weeks rather than months" and said Saddam Hussein's troops would "step aside." But as soon as the war started, Bush pushed expectations down, saying: "A campaign on the harsh terrain of a nation as large as California could be longer and more difficult than some predict." In fact, the war ultimately followed the original predictions, but Bush's warnings -- and media coverage of initial military difficulties -- made the swift victory look unexpected.
At the moment, Bush is fighting to deflate the standards he created on the eve of the Iraq war when he said there is "no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised." The president has been struggling to explain why, after more than two months of searching, no weapons have been found -- even suggesting the discovery of two trailers that could have been used to make biological weapons meant "we found the weapons of mass destruction."
Still, there is little sign that this will pose a political problem for Bush, because polls show that the discovery of forbidden weapons is not a priority for Americans. And after weeks of retroactively lowering expectations and a chorus of criticism from Democrats, some Republicans believe even the discovery of a small quantity of weapons would vindicate Bush. "They have so set this up, and the Democrats are out on such a limb, that if we have this stuff, it will be just amazing," Bond said.
In the Middle East, the very fact that Bush went to the region last week is an indication that the president believes he can succeed -- by his own estimation. In April 2002, he said in an interview on British television that "the only time that's appropriate for a U.S. president to call a summit [is] when it looks like something can get done." Implicitly criticizing President Bill Clinton's peacemaking efforts in 2000, Bush added: "The problem is, the American president, when he calls a summit, better get it right. If a summit fails, if the president . . . lays it out there and nothing happens, generally the . . . follow-up is worse than the status quo."
Bush's remarks echoed earlier criticism of Clinton by Fleischer, who accused the former president of trying to "shoot the moon" by holding high-profile peace talks. But in a briefing last week, Fleischer, who later retracted the remarks about Clinton, presented a lower standard for Bush. "Each individual entity or nation will be responsible for finding their own way to support that road map," he said. "The United States cannot do it for them, but the United States can be there to help the various parties come together."
In an interview, Fleischer said Bush was making no promises that he would succeed in Middle East peacemaking. "He's saying, 'I will expend time and energy,' " Fleischer said. And if the peace bid fails? "I think people are realistic about the prospects."
Even skeptics agree that Bush will not be held to the lofty standards he once set for Middle East summits. "On the whole, they've created great expectations but have been reasonably successful at not being held accountable for not meeting them," said James Steinberg, a former Clinton national security official. Steinberg said Bush has avoided accountability for expectations raised about the aftermath of war in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the Middle East, "there's a profound wariness about whether the parties are prepared to make this happen," Steinberg said. "People will not fault him if he does not succeed."
© 2003 The Washington Post Company
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