JOHN FUND'S POLITICAL DIARY
Total Recall--II
Gray Davis's governorship may soon meet the Terminator.
Thursday, June 12, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT
LOS ANGELES--A quarter century after Californians passed Proposition 13 and ignited a nationwide tax revolt, voters here may be getting ready to make history again. It looks as if an effort to recall Gov. Gray Davis will collect the 900,000 voter signatures to make the ballot . That would set up a political free-for-all at the same time the state is struggling with a $38 billion deficit. The mix of candidates to replace Mr. Davis may include both fellow Democrat Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Mr. Schwarzenegger was one of several speakers at a dinner here on Tuesday night marking the 25th anniversary of the passage of Howard Jarvis and Paul Gann's tax-cutting ballot initiative. The actor remarked on the similarities between the populist revolt against soaring property taxes in 1978 and today's distrust of Mr. Davis for his mishandling of the state's budget and energy problems.
Several dinner attendees recalled they had not seen such grass roots anger at the political establishment since the days of Proposition 13. "Back then a movie called 'Network' featured a character who said he was 'mad as hell and not going to take it anymore,' " says Joel Fox, author of a new book called "The Legend of Proposition 13." "That same anger is back now in spades."
Fueling that discontent is massive fiscal incompetence in Sacramento. Carl DeMaio of the San Diego-based Performance Institute notes that California's general budget grew by an average of 9.4% a year from fiscal 1997 through 2002. Revenues grew dramatically too--by 27% during Mr. Davis's first term. But spending went up 36% during the same period. If the state had only held spending growth to the increase in population and inflation, it would be enjoying a $5.5 billion surplus now.
A group of fiscal conservatives hope to avoid that kind of runaway spending in the future by making the recall effort a referendum not on Mr. Davis personally but on a constitutional amendment to limit taxes and spending. California had such a limit from 1979 until 1990, when a union-backed measure emasculating it narrowly passed. A new limit would be modeled after Colorado's 1994 Taxpayer Bill of Rights, which limits the growth of government to increases in population and inflation growth, rebates all extra revenue back to the taxpayers, and requires a referendum on all tax and fee hikes. As a result, Colorado is one of the few states without a severe budget crunch today.
Mr. Davis equivocates on the need for that kind of fiscal discipline, saying he prefers that the Legislature solve the problem through a mix of tax increases and borrowing. Critics say his plan only makes the problem worse in the long run.
Budget politics aside, Mr. Davis is determined to head off being the first governor to be unceremoniously booted from office in the middle of his term. He has collected $500,000 in union money and has set up a committee to fight the recall. That committee is now deploying a small army to collect signatures for counterpetitions. The fear among recall backers is that the governor is laying the ground work for a dirty trick. Once the governor's petitions have a sizable number of signatures, Mr. Davis could then get a judge to toss the recall off the ballot by claiming that many of pro-recall signatures actually came from people who'd meant to sign petitions backing the governor.
Other roadblocks could include Secretary of State Kevin Shelley, a Democrat, who might try to delay certification of the recall signatures long enough to push the election to next March, when the Democratic presidential primary would bring out the party faithful.
Rep. Darrell Issa, a San Diego congressman who has put up nearly $800,000 to jumpstart the recall, has already come under withering fire from the governor's operatives. They accuse Mr. Issa of wanting to be governor himself and trying to subvert the democratic process by removing a governor who was re-elected only seven months ago.
Mr. Issa admits he is a candidate for governor should the recall make the ballot, but notes that California has a long tradition of recalling elected officials for not performing their duties competently. "A recall isn't about whether someone is corrupt, it's about whether the voters have confidence in his ability to solve real problems," he told me.
Establishment Republicans are leery of the recall. They fear that in a chaotic election to replace Gov. Davis another Democrat could win. And unlike the term-limited Mr. Davis, the new governor would be able to seek re-election in 2006.
But the recall effort seems to be beyond partisan politics. Like Proposition 13, the push to remove Mr. Davis is an indictment of the way both parties have handled California's affairs. At Tuesday's dinner Los Angeles County Assessor Rick Auerbach, a Democrat who backed Proposition 13, recalled that only three of the state's 120 legislators backed the tax-cutting measure back in 1978. Today, only a few more are openly backing the Davis recall.
But rather than slowing the popularity of the recall, its lack of establishment support seems to be helping it. "People seem to think that if the guys who got us in this mess are against it, there might be something good in it," says Jonathan Coupal, head of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers' Association. "Elected officials would be wise to use the recall to drive a debate over better public policy rather than just be fearful of it."
A recall, however, wouldn't be like other elections. On the same ballot, voters would be asked whether they wish to recall Mr. Davis and also whom they want to replace him. If more than 50% of the votes favor recall, then the opposing candidate with the most votes becomes governor. That means that in a field of, say, a half a dozen candidates, the next governor of California could be elected with as little as 17% of the vote.
His political advisers have said Mr. Schwarzenegger will decide whether to run after the July 2 release of "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines," and only then if the recall effort qualifies for the ballot. "There comes a point when we the people must demand more out of our elected officials than for them just showing up," Mr. Schwarzenegger said. "Howard Jarvis used to say it is time to show the politicians who is the boss. We are at such a point right now, ladies and gentlemen. Our elected officials in Sacramento are facing a budget crisis unseen in this state since the Great Depression, and it was entirely avoidable. Entirely avoidable. Teachers are getting pink slips, cops are getting laid off and the taxpayers are facing an increase in taxes and California's future is in danger."
The Terminator mentioned the recall only indirectly, however. "This is really embarrassing. I just forgot our state governor's name, but I know that you will help me recall him." |
