Interesting data. Form your source;
"Forecasting next year's decline still remains an art form. I don't think anyone has ever been very good at predicting bad news. There are many ways also to slow natural decline, but it takes money and effort, and it's only when you look back, after these remediation efforts have been done that it creates real depletion answers. But let me tell you that as you all know, wells, fields and basins really do deplete.
Our firm a year ago conducted a very intensive analysis of what was happening to the natural gas supply in Texas by examining the detailed records of the Texas Drill Commission from 50% of the state's production in 53 counties. What we found was amazing. What we found was that in this 53 county area (this is 16% of the U.S. gas supply) the wells drilled in 2001, 2400 wells out of 37,000 wells that are in production created 30% of the total supply, and it turns out that 7% of these 2400 wells, 167 wells, created 49% of the supply and the other 93% of the wells created the remaining 51%. These giant 167 gas wells - a year later, we went back and tested their January 03 production; they had suffered a decline across the board of an average of 82% in a year, so wells do decline rapidly these days."
Wow,I would have thought the average life span for these gas wells would have been far greater. Can anyone give a plausible explanation to the cause of this? Could it be the extraction methods employed;ex,large bore size pipes(whatever) that would allow a far greater delivery rate there by depleting the well faster? It could be a viable cost/extraction method back then given a limited spot price environment for which to recoup costs. The idea,the more the better. I really do not know but I am sure there are a few here who can better calibrate an answer. |
