Hello energyplay, Although our guesses at the future are different, we are suffering the same dilemma, namely that cash is trash Message 19033143 and must be converted to something else, and some cash is trashier than other cash, and must be converted faster.
We have done OK to our own respective satisfaction in the past few years, and now we must start to concern ourselves about 2004.
In my own case, I feel that Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year steady-and-smooth return is getting tougher to generate at any given level of risk as measured by volatility and by probability of capital loss, at least at this particular juncture of low volatility and high market sense of financial security.
The USD correction has been mostly against the Euro, AUD, CAD and the truly diseased fiat paper of LatAm, and not as much against its other major trading partners in Asia. Europe will suffer as a result, by losing more factories, and markets, and gain by able to bargain shop. But Europeans typically had not been a consumption-crazed bunch, and so they will suffer and not enjoy. This state of affairs cannot be steady.
I believe some equity in Asia may do well, however I may dislike the corporate governance in my neighborhood.
I also think US commodity providers may do well, but not so much because of debt-fueled economic recovery as much as due to debt-fueled inflation.
The Deflation that Greensputin is concerned about is only of the bubble, and nothing more, because nothing of true importance is deflating other than assets not supportable by cash flow, just like in Japan.
We are still on the Japan Script, edging toward the Argentine Resolution.
Chugs, Jay |
