here's my newsletter form 2 weeks ago..
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED JUNE 1ST 2003
"FROLICKING IN THE FROTH"
Well hi there everyone, it has now rained here in Philly forever<g> Noah are you listening?<G> Will it ever stop? Hmm Maybe when the market tanks<VEGA> hahahahahahaha...ooooh la la, I feel frisky folks...
Look everyone this market is on one heck of a tear here. There is currently no end in sight. We will have pullbacks but they are bought with a vengeance and with quicker turn arounds on increasingly higher volume and with much larger swamp jobs. What I'm referring to is 3-4 days last week, the gainers out paced the losers by Hugh margins, the buy signals killed the sell signals, the upside reversals just murdered the downside ones...Sounds like a violent crime story...heh heh heh.
What does this all mean to us?...Man this market is on one wild tear here flying up Interstate I-95 with reckless abandon, and just keeps on truckin further and faster...Everyone is trying to predict a top, me? you? we're just along for this glorious ride..Because as sure as the Sun will rise tomorrow(not here in Philly), they'll crash this thing at some point with such a crushing blow it will make this rally look tame...Don't think so folks? you can make book on it...and i'll book that bet<g> Now look it's not going to happen here, why? Because I said so...Not 1 P&F indicators has turned down. They are only heading into oblivion not seen before in the history of these charts and we are not done yet. Actually we did have 1 short term indicator reverse down 2 weeks ago, then last week it went back up again...One powerful market. I'll show you how overbought we truly are as we look at each of the Bullish Percents(BP) on all the P*F indicators below...But remember this please, we can stay overbought for weeks and yes even months. Will we? Who knows. Do we care? Absolutely not.
What we do at these lofty levels is we do not chase, we do not buy breakouts, we only wait patiently for pullbacks to "Near Term" supports..Why near term you ask? Because any pullback is bought so quickly by the "dip buyers" you cannot wait and hope for a better cheaper price. This is NOT discount city folks... NOTHING IS ON SALE HERE...NOTHING!..You either play this game or you stand aside. It's your money and your life. I would suggest here to stop using large amounts of your trading funds, and instead use the wonderful world of Options. Go out only to the July/AUG time frame, and buy ONLY "IN THE MONEY CALLS". I am going over this one more time here because of A. the leverage, and B. the potential for quick gains with very little risk. People have been told old wives tales about the use of options but I'm an expert at trading them because I do not get crazy or too technical...
Here's what I mean..On any of the stocks below in our weekly watch list, at what ever price they're at right here as of Fridays close..Check the charts and my comments, and look for that 1-2 day pullback to support then buy the strike just below that pullback that's In The Money using July/Aug strike Month...Or even August/Sept if you feel safer...Now here's the real thinking for the use of options. 1. Only buy what you normally trade in shares..if you trade 500 shares per trade just buy 5 contracts using options. 1 contract equals 100 shares of stock you'll control 2. set stops just like on your stocks with a little more leeway to give the option time to "cook" if you will. 3. if you get an immediate pop in the stock price and you have a quick double? or 100% return?, SELL THEM RIGHT THEN AND THERE. no if's and's or BUTTS! 4. if you get a quick pop and you can sell part of your contracts to "recoup" your original investment take it...5. Or, if you get a 50% pop you could take that too, all of it. I can safely tell you if you could make a nice 50% return on your options trades you'll become a millionaire...you got that folks?. Do NOT GET GREEDY WITH OPTIONS AS THEY STRIP TIME PREMIUM EACH AND EVERY DAY OFF THAT STRIKE MONTH.. So take the money quickly and often..Do not forget to "rebuy" that solid option trade again. Just because you sold it once does not mean you can't hit it again. Right at the same strike and month or up a notch it matters not. Do NOT buy out of the monies..no way!
Why do I stress options?... Because you can only lose what you invest no more no less. Next when we get up into these levels it's so much cheaper to play the markets move here with options at these lofty levels..Now don't go out and buy 10 different options all at once..Maybe 1-2-3 maximum..Use stops in your stocks to exit..and never take more than a 15-20% hit on your purchase price...If you spend $4000, then do not lose more than $1000.00 and do not sit there hoping wishing and praying it will come back..IT WON'T.. GOT THAT EVERYONE? TAKE THE HIT AND MOVE ON.! Use a small portion of your trading capital to test this out with me over this next month...You cannot trade options without having the papers signed up at your broker, usually online...
OK LET'S LOOK AT THE BPS' OF ALL THE INDICATORS I WATCH USING POINT & FIGURE CHARTING..BTW ARE YOU TAKING THE P&F COURSE ON THE DORSEYWRIGHT SITE? ARE YOU LEARNING P&F? YOU NEED TO TRUST ME...JUST DO IT...BUY TOM'S BOOK ,AND LET HIM KNOW I SENT YOU..
NYSEBP=67.83% IT HAS HIT 76% LAST AUGUST AND I THINK THAT'S JUST WHERE IT'S GOING MAYBE HIGHER.
OTCBP=62.12% THIS INDEX JUST BROKE A TOP HERE AND HAS NOT SEEN THESE LEVELS IN A LONG LONG TIME
OPTIBP=72.66% AT LEVELS NOT SEEN IN YEARS FOLKS OVER THE 70% MARK AND OVERBOUGHT BUT VERY STRONG
NYSE-HI-LO AT 98% THIS IS VERY HIGH AND COULD JUST SIT HERE FOR WEEKS. OVER THE FEB 2001 & 02 HIGHS.
OTC-HI LO AT 94.90% ABOVE THE 2001 AND JAN 2002 NUMBERS AND STILL ROCKING UP. TECH RULES HUH?
NYSE 10 WEEK MVA-AT 89.41 JUST REVERSED BACK UP AGAIN LAST WEEK FROM A 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN...
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AS YOU CAN SEE WE ARE SERIOUSLY OVERBOUGHT BUT WE CAN STILL MOVE HIGHER AS THE LATE TO THE GAME FOLKS DIVE INTO THIS ABYSS...WE'RE JUST TRADERS HERE EVERYONE, PLEASE TELL YOUR FOLKS, RELATIVES AND CLOSE FRIENDS.. THEY NEED TO WAIT NOW FOR THE COMING MAJOR PULLBACK LATER THIS YEAR TO PUT ANY MEANINGFUL MONEY TO WORK..I WARN THEM AND YOU...THIS IS NOT THE TIME OR THE PLACE TO GET CRAZY..NOT HERE AND NOT NOW...SURE WE LOOK WILDLY BULLISH. YES WE COULD SCREAM UP HERE ANOTHER 4-500 DOW POINTS ETC..BUT THIS IS BUYING AT THE "TOP". WE DO NOT DO THAT, WE SELL OR HEDGE AT THE TOP. YOU GOT THAT FOLKS?...THIS IS FROM MAJOR LEAGUE EXPERIENCE..NO CHASING HERE. LET THEM RUN USE OUR "TRAILING STOPS" TO PROTECT PROFITS, DO NOT PREDICT..DO NOT LISTEN TO ALL THOSE KNOW IT ALLS, THEY'VE BEEN WRONG SINCE THE MARCH LOWS, AND STOP READING SO MUCH IT WILL DRIVE YOU NUTS...RELAX..WE HAVE THE BALL WE ARE STILL ON OFFENSE, AND ALMOST ACROSS THE GOAL LINE FOR A TOUCHDOWN!!!!!
OK LET'S LOOK AT THE INDEXES WE KNOW AND LOVE...
DJIA(DOW)---WILL BREAK YET ANOTHER DOUBLE TOP(DT) AT 8900 IT LOOKS LIKE 9400/9450 IS DOABLE. AND THIS LAST DT WILL COME OFF JUST A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN(3BXRVDN)...IMMEDIATELY FOUND BUYERS THERE AT 8700. SIMPLY AMAZING. THE 20 EMA DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) IS AT 8600, THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN IS AT 8328.00...I HAVE A NEAR TERM PROJECTION OF 9129.00 WE'LL SEE...
COMPX---BROKE A DT AT 1560 AS ADVERTISED HERE. SITTING AT 1595..I STILL HAVE A TARGET OF 1640, I LOOKED AT THIS ON A SLOWER 20 POINT CHART IT CLEARED "ALL" NEAR TERM RESISTANCE(R) LAST WEEK...THE BULLISH P&F PRICE OBJECTIVE IS 1760 WHEW! THAT BIG FOLKS, DOUBT WE GET THERE..WATCH 1550/60 FOR ANY REVERSAL DOWN AS NEW SUPPORT.
SOX---BROKE A DT AT 365 AS ADVERTISED AND IS STILL MOVING UP HERE. WE DO HAVE SOME IMPORTANT STOCKS TO WATCH THIS COMING NEXT 2 WEEKS MID QUARTER UPDATES OF BRCM ON THE 5TH, AND INTC TOO JUST NEED TO FIND THAT DATE PLEASE HELP ME WITH THIS...VERY IMPORTANT INFO FOR US. BP SEMI IS AT 67.21% AND IT'S HEADING TO 76/78% FOR SURE....400 IS THE NEAR TERM TARGET 410 A LARGE B/O THERE.
NDX---BROKE A TRIPLE TOP AT 1170 A POWERFUL B/O(BREAKOUT). IT'S BANGED HEADS UP HERE AT 1200 LAST WEEK..IF WE PULLBACK(PB) EARLY THE NEXT RUN UP SHOULD TAKE IT OUT...ACTUALLY TRYING TO BREAK THAT RISING WEDGE...TO THE UPSIDE. 1170 THE 3BXRVDN...BPNDX AT 83% UNREAL.
BTK---ONE HECK OF A RUN HERE..WE HAD A BREAK OUT BUY WAY BACK AT 370 ON P&F..IT'S BEEN STRAIGHT UP SINCE THEN, AND IT JUST DID A 3BXRVDN LAST WEEK EARLY...AT 440...455 THE DT, AND THEN 460 THE NEW IMPROVED DT BUY SIGNAL AGAIN...BP BIOM AT 66% AND CAN MOVE HIGHER.
BKX---BROKE A DOUBLE TOP AT 820 AND KEPT ON RUNNING...SOLID CHART FOLKS. 820 THE 3BXRVDN..SEEMS REDUNDANT HUH? EVERYTHING THAT BROKE OUT HAS NEW SUPPORT AT THE B/O NUMBERS.
SPX---BROKE A DT AT 950 AND IS STILL RALLYING HIGHER HEADING TO THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND ATR 985..I DO HAVE A TARGET OF 980-1000 SPX MARKET WILLING. THE BP SPX IS AT 72% IT CAN GO HIGHER.
SPM3-SPOOOS THE FUTURES...BROKE THE TOP AT 952 AFTER A SHAKEOUT PATTERN I CALLED 2 WEEKS AGO ON MANY INDEXES...WE HIT THAT NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD..AND NOW MANY OF THOSE SHAKEOUTS HAVE TURNED INTO BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSALS BACK UP TO BULLISH CHARTS..THESE ARE VERY RELIABLE AND POWERFUL AS WE WITNESSED LAST WEEK...WHAT IS VERY INTERESTING HERE IS..THIS INDEX CANNOT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL TILL IT BREAKS 908...THAT'S A LONG WAY DOWN NOW...
NQM3---NAZ FUTURES--SAME AS THE NDX---ANOTHER BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL...TRIPLE TOP BUY AT 1170 AND BREAKSOUT...HAS LEGS TO ME...FOR MORE UPSIDE...
VIX & VXN---26 THE 3BXRVUP ON THE VIX---32 THE 3BXRVUP VXN..BUT BOTH ARE STILL WEAK WITH THE VIX THE BETTER OF THE 2, AND TRYING TO BASE..I DID SAY TRYING...IF THEY CRACK LOWER THIS MARKETS GOING UP MUCH HIGHER...
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SO WHAT DO WE HAVE HERE...MANY NICE INDEX CHARTS AT VERY HIGH LEVELS ON THEIR RESPECTIVE BP'S. WE CAN MOVE HIGHER AND I THINK WE WILL. WHERE WE STOP KNOW ONE KNOWS..STAY THE COURSE BE RELAXED AND CALM...EMOTIONS WILL KILL YOUR GOOD THINKING...WE ALL HAVE GONE THRU THIS, AND I WANT TO THANK THE WHOLE ROOM FOR TRYING TO HELP OTHERS THAT ARE HAVING TROUBLE CONTROLLING THESE EMOTIONS...THAT'S WHAT THE CAMARADERIE IS ALL ABOUT, THAT'S WHAT WE'RE HERE FOR TO HELP OTHERS DO WELL...THANKS FOR THAT EVERYONE...BTW FWIW..THERE WAS A TON OF LATE BUYING IN THE LAST 1/2 HOUR ON FRIDAY..I MEAN BIG...
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OK LET'S GET RIGHT TO OUR STOCKS WE LIKE TO TRADE...AS YOU ALREADY KNOW I AM NOT ONE TO SWAY TOO FAR FROM THE STOCKS WE LIKE TO TRADE AND KNOW A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SUPPORTS AND R AREAS...IMPORTANT THAT WE CAN WATCH AND UNDERSTAND THESE VERY SAME STOCKS WEEK TO WEEK.
BRCM---I AM LONG THIS STOCK USING OPTIONS...THEY HAVE A MID Q UPDATE THRU THE 5TH AH..COULD BE A SCREAMER UP AND THRU THIS REPORT...CHART IS LUSCIOUS. 25 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)---24 THE SST(SHORT SALE TRIGGER).
DELL---I AM LONG THIS ONE TOO VIA OPTIONS. MIKEY DELL STOPPED SELLING FOR NOW...31.70 THE BTL---30.95 THE SST---NEEDS TO GET OVER 32.77 THE RECENT TOP...STILL OPTIONABLE AND WAS BEING BOUGHT LATE FRIDAY
ROOM---THIS STOCK PART OF THE 3 AMIGOS HAS GIVEN 5 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS STARTING AT 48?...JUST DID ANOTHER ONE AT 88...I LIKE THIS STOCK TO HIT 100 SOON..I AM GOING TO TRY SOME OPTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...91.30 THE BTL---90.25 THE SST---
USAI---SOLID UPWARD MOVING STOCK CHART..HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS..BEAUTIFUL. 38.75 THE BTL---37.75 THE SST---TAKE IT LONG FOR SURE AND HOLD...IT RECENTLY PULLED BACK TO THE RISING 20 AT 34/35 AREA...
EXPE---ANOTHER GREAT LOOKING CHART A PART OF THE INETS..THEY ARE FANTASTIC...AND ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN FOR A LONG WHILE NOW.. BROKE A DT AT 73 LAST WEEK AND LOOKS AWESOME...73.80 THE BTL---72.70 THE SST---
QLGC---I MADE $2.00 ON THIS LAST WEEK HOLDING OVER NIGHT..SWEET HUH?...BROKE A DT AT 49 TOUCHED 50. HIGH CCI HERE DCC CHART SO BE COOL..BUT BRCM COULD HELP THE WHOLE SEMIS SECTOR. 50.70 THE BTL---49.50 THE SST---
KLAC---A STOCK TO OWN HERE FOLKS..FABULOUS CHART PATTERN WITH A RISING TREND LINE AND MAJOR BUYING THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE WEEK..HIGH VOLUME ACCUMULATION...46.75 THE BTL---45.70 THE SST. BUY ANY AND ALL PB'S.
NTAP---I NOW HAVE A DOUBLE DOSE OF THIS ONE...1 AT 16.20 THE OTHER AT 17.15...JUST BROKE A DT AT 17 AND CAN MOVE UP HERE HARD..MARKET WILLING..17.55 THE BTL---16.60 THE SST.
NVDA---I HAVE NO CLUE HOW HIGH THIS ONE CAN GO, BUT THERE'S NO SELLERS YET AND IT'S ON ONE HECK OF A HIGH POLE..I MEAN LARGE...26.70 THE BTL---25.65 THE SST. WHEN WE CORRECT THIS WILL TOO...BIG!
ZRAN---THIS CHART IS REALLY NICE..I SOLD IT WAY TOO SOOON..WAAAAY...BOO HOO...I MAY GET BACK IN HERE IT DOES NOT MOVE TOO FAST BUT THE CHART IS SOLID AS A ROCK...20.95 THE BTL---20 THE SST...TAKE IT LONG
VRSN---THIS STOCK HAS MADE A GREAT MOVE STRAIGHT UP FROM THE MARCH LOWS..I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT DAY IN AND DAY OUT...ANYONE LONG?...15.40 THE BTL---14.45 THE SST---I'D WAIT FOR A PB HERE...
CEPH---OK CHECK THE DCC CHART, 3 NICE STICKS ON A PB HERE ON CONTRACTING VOLUME..NICE BULL FLAG RIGHT?..EITHER TAKE 1/2 A POSITION HERE AND BUY MORE ON ANY 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN...OR USE THE 40 CALLS...NICE FOLKS...45.65 THE BTL---44.40 THE SST..LOVE THIS CHART...
GILD---BEAUTIFUL P&F CHART AS WELL THE DCC JUST BROKE OUT TO 52 WEEK HIGHS. 49 THE BXRVDN...52.85 THE BTL---51.75 THE SST...LOVE THIS STOCK CHART...
IDPH---BROKE ABOVE THE 200 EMA ON THE DCC CHART AND ACTUALLY PULLED BACK RIGHT TO IT AS SUPPORT..HAMMERED ON FRIDAY..AND NOW?...38.75 THE BTL---37.65 THE SST..THE 35 CALLS COULD BE NICE...
CHIR---BROKE TOUGH R AT 44..THAT WAS ONE BIG B/O FOLKS...PULLED BACK A BIT HERE...44.55 THE BTL---43.55 THE SST...I LIKE THIS ONE TOO..BIOS HAD A SHORT REST LAST WEEK..MAYBE WAIT 1-2 DAYS LET'S WATCH VOLUME...
NVLS---WHAT A STOCK HUH FOLKS..HELPED IGNITE THE WHOLE MARKET WITH NOTHING MORE THAN, "WE'RE ABOUT THE SAME" COMMENT...MEANING THINGS ARE NOT GETTING WORSE...IT BROKE OUT AT 31 ON GIGANTIC VOLUME..I CAN SEE 38-40 ON THIS RUN...USE THE 32.50'S OR 35'S OF JULY...35.10 THE BTL---34.10 THE SST...STILL IN PLAY AND OPTIONABLE RIGHT HERE.
JCOM---ONE CRAZY POWERFUL STOCK..EVERY PB IS BEING BOUGHT FOLKS..HAVE PATIENCE WITH THIS ONE IF THE MARKET ROLLS UP HERE THIS ONE WILL TOO...37.50 THE BTL---36.40 THE SST...ALREADY REV DOWN 3 BOXES...39 THE NEW DT BUY SIGNAL..I LOVE THIS CHART...
MERQ---FINDING SOME HEAVY R AT 39 A LARGE AREA OF SELLERS SO FAR..I DOUBT THEY WILL BE THERE TOO MUCH LONGER...39.85 THE BTL..40 THE VERY BIG TIME B/O THERE...38.70 THE SST...TAKE IT LONG...
QCOM---FINALLY GOT A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP ON THE CHART TO 33...NEEDS A LOT MORE TO KEEP GOING UP HERE...34 THE BTL---33 THE SST... THIS STOCK BROKE OUT OF A DESCENDING WEDGE NICELY...
AMZN---JUST A GREAT CHART FOR THIS INET..STELLAR PERFORMER AND MORE GOOD INFO COMING EACH MONTH..THEY ARE SAYING NICE THINGS ABOUT THE FUTURE..THEY ACTUALLY MAKE "SOME" MONEY<G>..36.45 THE BTL---35.30 THE SST...
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OK THAT'S THE GROUP FOR THIS WEEK...YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THAT MANY CHARTS ARE UP THERE..BUT WITH CAREFUL USE OF OPTIONS AT THE STRIKE BELOW THE CURRENT NUMBERS, THIS TO ME MAKES THE MOST SENSE AT THESE TOPPING LEVELS...I LIKED ALL THE ECONOMIC REPORTS FROM THURS AND FRIDAY...LET'S SEE IF THEY CAN KEEP ON MOVING UP..WE HAVE THAT VERY IMPORTANT ISM NUMBER ON MON...HERE ARE THE DATES AND REPORTS FOR THIS WEEK..COURTESY OF DWA SITE..
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Indicator Date Time Estimate Previous Actual Country
Auto Sales (May) 06/02/2003 12:00AM 5.4M 5.4M US
Truck Sales (May) 06/02/2003 12:00AM 7.7M 7.6M US
Construction Spending (Apr) 06/02/2003 10:00AM N/A -1.0% US
ISM Index (May) 06/02/2003 10:00AM 47.0 45.4 US
Productivity-Rev. (Q1) 06/04/2003 8:30AM 2.0% 1.6% US
ISM Services (May) 06/04/2003 10:00AM 51.0 50.7 US
Initial Claims (05/31) 06/05/2003 8:30AM N/A N/A US
Factory Orders (Apr) 06/05/2003 10:00AM -0.9% 2.2% US
Average Workweek (May) 06/06/2003 8:30AM 34.2 34.0 US
Hourly Earnings (May) 06/06/2003 8:30AM 0.2% 0.1% US
Nonfarm Payrolls (May) 06/06/2003 8:30AM -25K -48K US
Unemployment Rate (May) 06/06/2003 8:30AM 6.1% 6.0% US
Consumer Credit (Apr) 06/06/2003 3:00PM $3.0B $0.9B US
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NEXT THE NEW IMPROVED PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS......frothy...........hope you can all see this<g> lowercase oneword...frothy...
HERE'S A LIST OF ALL MY SHORTHAND STUFF:
BTL---BUY TRIGGER LONG, MEANS YOU CAN TAKE THAT STOCK LONG "IF" WE CALL IT A TREND DAY UP OR THE FUTURES ARE STRONG AFTER THE FIRST 15 MINUTES...
SST----SHORT SALE TRIGGER---SAME AS ABOVE BUT IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION...TREND IS IMPORTANT EITHER WAY..
B/O---BREAKOUT
O/S---OVERSOLD
DT---DOUBLE TOP
DB---DOUBLE BOTTOM
PB---PULLBACK
BRL---THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE--USUALLY VERY TOUGH O/H R...
R---RESISTANCE
BSL---BULLISH SUPPORT LINE THE LINE THAT'S EXCELLENT SUPPORT
S---SUPPORT.
3BXRVDN/UP---A 3 POINT MOVE IN THE P&F CHART UP OR DOWN...
HOPE THAT HELPS YOU NEWBIES...
ANYWAY LET'S HAVE ANOTHER SENSATIONAL WEEK...
SEE YOU ALL IN THE ROOM
BEST REGARDS
JERRY
jerry olson
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com
jerry.olson@verizon.net |
