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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (64414)6/15/2003 4:20:58 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Good; While Max pain says we pull back this week , I would
not bet strong on it. Even if we do other indicators are showing we most
likely have more upside to this run after the pull back..
401K equity assets allocation hit an all time percentage low
since 1997..of 56.6% in FEB.., then march it was 56.9
April it made 57.9 , and at end of May was still only 61.5
or up 4.9 % from FEB..
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Well 61.5 is still low to the average, and well off the danger point
of 70% or high of 74%...
ALSO that allocation didn't go up from Feb to May because 401K people
did a major shift ( or buy ) .., it went up more as a result of
stock price improvement.
---
401k people are not coming back in to equitys as fast as
Some Big pension funds..
----
I think major State Pension funds ETC . were the cause of the
Big Bubble back in 2000..not J6P..
and I also think they are still in bad shape from
the sell off, and that this is them trying to time
the market to play catch up..
While it may ( and likely will ) work for a while, they are not very good
timers..longer term them playing catch up with
( our tax dollars ) is more likely to spell another BIG leg down..
but that's a way off..and will start about the time the 401k'ers
pile in.
Jim
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