in may I thought it was the 1999 nikkei...now I am absolutely convinced that it is the 1993 nikkei.
My view is that we are going to be in a trading range for a few years here and that we are nearing the top of that range. The bottom of the range will be near the October lows.
As far as the 1999 comparison, I didn't put any percentage on a big dump coming. In fact, I didn't draw any conclusion. I put the nikkei weekly up against the spx daily and let the charts speak for themselves. The patterns are still very similar for 1999, but the other momentum indicators such as RSI, MACD, Stochs (full, fast, slow on your settings) all match the 1993 nikkei monthly.
here's a couple of charts.
stockcharts.com[r,a]maclynay[d19850612,20030612][pb50!b200][iub14!la12,26,9!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3][J13730488,Y]&pref=G
stockcharts.com[r,a]maclynay[d19930612,20030612][pb50!b200][iub14!la12,26,9!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3][J13730644,Y]&pref=G |
