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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Dayuhan who wrote (101872)	6/18/2003 6:05:41 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Have we accurately assessed the risks? Risk assessment, at best, consists of "fuzzy logic" and statistical predictions which are essentially the analyst's "best guess". It can NEVER be an exact science.. But risk is often increased when our response, or reactions, are not powerful enough... And remember, for every risk we face, we have to perceive it from the other guys perspective... What risks do they face and how will US actions impact their options.. The war is still not over, and there is a whole lot that can go wrong. We are actually still entering the most difficult phase, something many here don’t seem to realize. I totally agree. But Iraq is not Vietnam. It's not condusive, IMO, to long-lasting guerilla warfare.. Because the minute they expose themselves enmasse, they are vulnerable to massive counter-attack. As for the police.. etc.. It's been a little more than two months.. And there wasn't much in place beforehand that wasn't Baathist and corrupt. But yes.. I would like to see things move a bit faster. And Bemer seems to be making some progress.. Hawk

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