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Pastimes : SARS - what next?
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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (551)6/18/2003 5:52:18 PM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) of 1070
 
>>A better test will be next October, but with such a low reservoir of infection and a wide-awake world, it's unlikely that Sars will get a grip next northern winter<<

You are missing two major points which will loom large in the fall. One is the spread of the SARS CoV (not just the patients detected by a case definition that is largely tied to known contacts). The other is the accumulation of mutations in the SARS CoV.

The virus that exploded out of the Metrople Hotel had a 29 nt deletion as well as 7 mutations and the number of mutations has since gone up.

The mutations that exist today were not present in the fall of 2002 and the reservoir was largely limited to wild animals in Guangdong Province.

Next fall will be a whole new ball game.
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