vt:
Who knows where the HUI is going over the next couple of weeks... breakout or correction? Of course I'd love to see it break out (vbg), but I'm not too concerned either way...
IMHO, we have to keep reminding ourselves that it looks like we're in a primary (long-term) gold bull market -- to be confirmed, as CC has wisely pointed out, by a move above $415. And bull markets in gold *don't* behave like "normal" markets in gold.
e.g. It's widely assumed that gold prices always go down in the summer. However, if you look at the long term charts, during bull markets this just hasn't been the case. By my reckoning, there have been 3 major up-moves in gold in the last 25 years (late-70s, 1982, mid-80s) and just look what happened in July and August during those years:
1978: +$26
1979: +$38
1982: +$94
1985: +$15
1986: +$38
1987: +$8
i.e. Gold moved up *every* summer in the last quarter century when there's been a bull market. Last year (2002) was the only exception -- but then the bull hasn't yet been confirmed! :^)
If you look at just the months of July, there was a significant move up in every year -- and also in 1993, although this was followed by a sharp correction in August of that year.
So, I'm hoping for a repeat performance in 2003 -- and 2004 of course! Incidentally, in most of those years, the POG was very quiet in June, but then it really took off in July.
Food for thought...
Regards,
Howy |
