SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: stockman_scott who wrote (20642)6/18/2003 8:51:56 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (3) of 89467
 
THE ROARING 2000'S?

Both as someone who learned a great deal about the effect of the demographic spending pattern on stock market prices from H. Dent and who still admires his ability to do original academic work and then popularize that work to a mass audience, it is with some sadness that I agree with most of the Mauldin article. Dent always did tend to push his demographic ideas as the only motivating force behind stock prices. Hello – ever hear of greed and fear.

These days it is better to use the demographic profile (that Dent so popularized) as others are to predict the course of the secular bear that has already started – e. g. the despair valuation low should occur around ‘07/’08, and the next secular bull should not begin until 2018 (Good Luck Greenspan and to any LTB&Hs that are counting on him).

I’ve already chronicled where I think Dent went wrong - his interpretation of the ’66 – ‘82 demographic data with (unadjusted for inflation) market data. If he had used inflation-adjusted data, an explanation of the ’66 market peak would have allowed a prediction of the 2000 peak. Instead, 2000 blindsided Dent, and he has yet to recover. His predictions become increasingly shrill and outrageous as though he were trying to will the market up. It’s sad to watch someone that has done truly creative work, make himself irrelevant.

JMO

lurqer
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News