Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (35148)	6/19/2003 12:35:34 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Hi Jay - An interest rate of 0.5 % is like a P/E of 200. Many of the dot-com excesses were attributed to the effectively zero cost of capital. Looks like that may be repeated. In looking at lots of charts for hard assets - real estate, energy, metals, resource counties, etc. - for the past 3 months I see an almost straight line at 4-5 % per month. Here's Austrailia i-shares (EWA) and a US REIT closed end fund (RFI) - siliconinvestor.com I think one major common factor is the move to real assets and away from the dollar.... My concern is that the US dollar may stop moving down for a while, and there is a systematic risk in many of my positions. That's why I'm interseted in growth plays (China, using the CHN fund) and real shortages / repricing, like natural gas.

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