I think the toughest issue facing this economy remains the "intractability" of unemployment. That said, unemployment remains very LOW by historical standards. The problem is, the bubble created a situation of artificially high employment, so expectations remain artificially high.
This viewpoint, however, is slowly dissipating. Reality is setting in, and that's a good thing. Rather than having college students talking about how they'll graduate, market a million dollar idea, cash out and retire at 30, they are starting to think longer and harder about where to work to maximize their income. This is a radical departure from 3 years ago.
This is also very good news from a stability standpoint. Is it so bad that college grads have to start out making 20-30k per year? I'd say no (having started at 14k 18 years ago), since it means they have to concentrate on how to work hard and do a good job as opposed to how to skip out after 3 months for a signing bonus, stock options and a 50% increase in pay.
Short term, certainly in my area (NYC DMA), incomes are slowly improving, savings are way up, and attitudes are improving. I agree the market is still ill, but I'd say the economy is on the mend. Slowly, with much trepidation, but definitely on the mend.
Sorry, know you didn't ask me...but I couldn't resist.
Oh yeah, I've been short through alot of this bull...partly due to the inability to spend time analyzing stuff (new job and all), partly because I'd gone sour on the market after the rapid win in Iraq. However, I'd noticed general improvements in attitudes as early as last Feb. |
