the 21st century will be the century of China. The 19th century was the century of the United Kingdom. The 20th century was the century of the U.S. The 21st century will be China's.
the problem with this kind of facile analysis is that it will be physically impossible for it to happen. economic growth in the modern world requires energy--he who has the most energy produces the most. so who has the energy and how much do they produce? and how much more energy will China need before our grandchildren are relegated to the status of servants for a billion-plus Chinese yuppies?
we use about 14 times more energy per capita than China, and have a per capita income some 8.5 times higher. for them to raise per capita income significantly will require much higher energy consumption.
this actually understates the impending pricing pressure on oil due to Chinese economic growth because they rely on coal for about 75% of their energy. this is why Chinese cities are among the most polluted in the world. as energy consumption doubles over the coming decade in China, i doubt they will be able to maintain coal at 75% "market share" in their energy market without making their already noxious urban air totally uninhabitable. this means more market share for oil.
already they are the third largest oil consumer, with consumption more than doubling over the past decade. another doubling over the next decade will mean China's consumption alone would be equivalent to peak Saudi production. again, this despite their incredible reliance on coal due to their lack of environmental regulations.
going forward, for them to raise per capita GDP to even 25% of the US level, which will be required if one is to consider the 21st century "China's", will require oil prices in excess of $100 a barrel. this will of course reduce the very economic expansion which China needs to fulfill the world domination theme song which is so popular these days.
the more likely scenario, imo, is that China will push energy prices higher and we will have a lot of wars over energy. don't think it can happen? hell, the British almost went to war with Iceland in the 1970s over cod fishing! britains-smallwars.com
there will definitely be wars over the main supply of energy which keeps the modern world humming.
at the end of the century, civilization as we know it will be gone. the 21st century may then be considered China's prize, by some measures, but it will be a booby prize. |
