So you think that makes it 'physically impossible'?? What does that mean?
i'm talking about peak oil. the world's oil production is peaking in the next few years or has already peaked. if you meet some oil shill who says, look at all the oil in the ground, it'll last a hundred years, ask him how much of that oil is at the pump. they can only get it out at a certain rate. that rate is world production. it's a curve with a top called Hubbert's Peak and that's where we sit. we're on a roller coaster ride where most people will fall off and in 100 years there will be a lot less people in the world, living without HVAC and Hummers and suburbia and even without Los Angeles i hope and growing their own vegetables. (hopefully, unless the oil wars lead to nukes.)
it spells the end of the world as we know it. you don't need SARS or nukes or terrorists--you just need people to keep driving their land yachts to work and consuming 40 barrels of oil per capita.
i personally consider this the most important investing theme over the next two decades--bigger than deflation, bigger than the clownbuck, bigger than Mark McGwire's arms, bigger than Hillary's book advance, and yes, bigger even than Keanu Reeve's take from Matrix Reloaded (more than $200 mil, pretty good for wood!).
it's also screwing with my head some, because if you believe the world's sort of coming to an end, what's the point in trying to make money off it? where will you spend it?
anyway, i summarized some of this stuff in an email yesterday...
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here are some books i've read recently:
amazon.com.
amazon.com.
amazon.com.
i have the following on order as it looks quite interesting:
amazon.com.
there are also many excellent resources on the web.
check out the many excellent free web lectures here: globalpublicmedia.com
in particular, i would suggest the one by Julian Darley as a very user-friendly place to start. from there, i would go to Colin Campbell. then i would explore materials on sites like www.peakoil.net and Campbell's pieces, such as hubbert.mines.edu
Campbell also has a new book which i just discovered and will probably order: multi-science.co.uk
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when there are a billion Chinese yuppies, their time will be up
but that's my point--just do the math and you'll see there's no way there can be a billion Chinese yuppies. the amount of oil supply required to get them from 4-5K per capita GDP to a yuppie-like 25K+ does not exist below $100 a barrel. and at $100 a barrel, their growth which leads them to the promised land of yuppie consumer heaven cannot be afforded.
But who can trade for oil??? US?? NO, China... yes! IMO this factor FAVORS the fall of US and rise of China!
wait, back up a bit. where the hell does China get its moulah? from us! by selling us their crap, which we pay for with our confetti, which they peg their currency to so that we can continue to afford to buy their crap. and oh yes, all the ME countries who are currently in the crosshairs of our military, they take our confetti, too. just look at what happened to the guy who wanted to be paid in euros!
BIG PAIN COMING OUR WAY under your scenario IMO.
no doubt! TEOTWAWKI, man. |
