Yeah, TC is a little more intimate with the trials and travails that I went through at the turn of the new year, but it all worked out in the end.
Unfortunately, from a trading standpoint, this new job is quite a large improvement over the previous one. This leaves me precious little time to review the charts, post regularly, or keep an eye on my trades. As a result, the few trades I engaged in recently have done poorly.
However, the market is due to turn. I had felt it would turn back at DJIA 8700, but was sadly mistaken. I noticed the NYSE Summation index is at all time highs, and issued a sell signal as soon as it hit 78% higher than the previous high. Not the best of omens.
Also, I saw a report that indicated insider selling was very heavy in the last few months.
All said, I don't think that validates the "Big Bear" standpoint that we have a long way to go down. Certainly the breadth of the run up was large and stock is held in more hands now than 3 months ago. That's good. But the question remains - how many are strong hands?
Given the moderate strength of the economy recently, I think most are. There is, without a doubt, a "floor" in. I wish I knew where it was (I'm guessing 7100 remains the psychological floor, but I'm certain the LOWEST we'd go is about 6400 now). Whether we head back that far, I don't know, but I doubt.
I still believe we'll roll over a few times, just like we have since last October.
People have a hard time believing things are "good" because the previous good times were SO GOOD. When you raise expectations to unsustainable levels, it's hard to bring them back to more realistic standpoints. We're getting there, though. Slowly and methodically, which is just the way to do it. |
