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Strategies & Market Trends : Currents of Currency

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To: Ahda who wrote (67)	6/23/2003 9:59:12 AM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) of 594

edd.ca.gov No good news though I wish there was. In Ca the job market it not growing but wages are increasing for those that are employed. Finance is one of the few areas of growth however it isn't going into strengthening the job market but the price of housing. I would like to see a rise in the labor force unfortunately it is not showing up. Unemployment stats could soon be useless as there can be a decrease in unemployment figures due to expiration of benefits. The stats that are the most meaningful now are those that show actual employment. It is my belief Ca which has a large under counter job market could find find it is starting to have a higher percentage of the populous at poverty level. This will be caused by increased competition for low income jobs. The result is the burden becomes greater for the budget of the state. dof.ca.gov June 2003 Economic Update There is still no sign of an upturn in California’s economic condition. Employment continues to be lackluster, with industry job losses for four consecutive months. In addition to continuing problems in the manufacturing sector, weakness is now appearing in the state’s service sectors. While housing and real estate markets remain strong, home building has cooled from the phenomenal pace that 2003 started with. Preliminary General Fund agency cash for May was $148 million above the 2003-04 May Revision forecast of $3.592 billion. Including adjustments for actual April receipts that were not known when the May Revision forecast was prepared, year-to-date revenues are $147 million higher than the $60.822 billion that was expected. Personal income tax revenues were $237 million above the month’s forecast of $1.029 billion. The gain was attributable to 2002 tax year refunds, which were $256 million below the projected level of $1.437 billion. Although withholding was $32 million below the estimate of $2.022 billion, it was 2.6 percent above the year-ago level. Withholding has posted year-over-year increases since February, which is a good indication that wages have strengthened so far in 2003. Other payments, which include final payments for the 2002 tax year, were $13 million above the $444 million that was expected. The second estimated payment for the 2003 tax year is due in mid-June. Sales and use tax receipts were $94 million below the month’s forecast of $2.152 billion. May represents the balance of the final payments for first quarter taxable sales as well as the first prepayment for second quarter sales. It appears that both the final payments and the prepayments were modestly lower than anticipated.

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