jeffrey bash. I'd be curious to know if you've come to a decision on any of these E&P stocks, and any info. you might share about how you reached your decision and what stock, if any that you've bought.
That's because our investing styles seem to be so different, as we have discussed in past. Briefly again, it's my opinion that you are one to do VERY detailed, very thorough research into each particular company you study and, if I recall correctly, its sector competitors and the environment in which these companies operate. Your stock holdings are concentrated because you have confidence in your dd/abilities/conclusions. This is totally opposite from me who does skimpy research, superficial dd, and often invests in a broad swath of stocks within a sector. I see, for example, I am currently holding about 25 positions in energy companies, excluding utilities, but including refiners and large multinational oils.
In past, it seems to me your record - based on posts on this thread (our only source) - is much better than mine for picking stocks and also for making sell decisions at appropriate times.
However, in this particular sector - small e&p, I say I have the advantage over you because the variables to analyze are many and the exogenous factors play a much greater role in determining stock prices. Especially for the smaller companies, it's almost a crapshoot, imo, which company will have successful exploration results. Therefore I say it's likely a package of these stocks will do better than most individual stocks, because it's more random than deterministic that a particular stock will perform well.
This just my opinion, and as I've been ..er... less right in my picks/timing/sells/ compared to you with your concentrated bets, I'd certainly would like to believe I can best you here, in a complex area where I believe my package approach provides greater chance for gains -g-. Of course you might decide there's nothing worth buying in the sector at current price, and that might prove to be the best decision of all.
Paul Senior
finance.yahoo.com |
