January Effect 2003 Message Board

STOCKTALK

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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003

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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (596)	6/24/2003 4:20:18 AM
From: Londo	Read Replies (1) of 666

The Hang Seng has been a pretty good leading indicator to the S&P 500 lately - it's down another 100 points today. On the next 200 point rise in that index, I'll go short - it's pretty clear that the post-SARS recovery has been over-done. As for equities, I see a couple conflicting stories, one involves mutual fund 'window dressing' which alleges that funds will buy the winners for the end of the quarter. I don't see how this can increase the indexes, however. The other is that this is 'normal profit taking'. I'm just remembering in the middle of August 2002 when the S&P reached 960, that this was the typical comment when the S&P backed down another 30 points. Profit taking to S&P 700 maybe? The EUR and ZB have been pretty silent this night - 1.1520 and 119 12/32 are quite far from my revised entry points of 1.1441 and 118 6/32. I suspect tomorrow and Wednesday (morning) will be quiet, just due to the Greenspan factor. The volatility should be in the equities. Oh, the CAD is at 0.7325.. missed my order by about 28 pips (reached 0.7278 I think yesterday). I'm not at all convinced that the US/EUR/JPY are done inflating their currencies yet - this could mean higher commodity prices yet in the future. As much as I think this country (Canada) is run by mediocre administration, we do stand to have our currency boosted with commodity prices and our relatively strong economy (not to mention our 12B+ current account surplus for Q1-2003 and interest differential). We can probably run the currency up to 80-85 cents before the bank of Canada will get smart and start buying USD and Yen. Why is oil still at 29 bucks a barrel? Iraq will finally be pumping in the near future once they clear up the pipeline security issues and OPEC won't be obeying their quotas as usual. The whole point for Bush to invade was to get the price of oil down - right now that doesn't appear to be successful.

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