Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2607)	6/24/2003 11:58:09 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (2) of 4907

there you go again--"something else"--what it is, neither you nor anyone else seems to know, There are many combustible alternatives to petroleum its just that they are far more expensive to produce and distribute. A while back a friend said that there wasn't anything that was needed in the world. I said I'd settle for a cheap, plentiful alternative to petroleum. He replied that I should be careful what I wish for because it would have a devastating effect on an economy that was already suffering the dislocations of rapid technological change. Besides, we already have a cheap alternative in fiber optic. You are right that the cost is higher than the barrel price, the switching cost is also high. Anything that turns that infrastructure into dust would be extremely expensive. It would take a far higher oil price before it would be worth switching to "something else". Maybe that "higher price" was a couple of airplanes flown into the WTC. Perhaps the only thing that keeps people from using oil at the rate that they do is a higher price they can see on the pump. So far, in real dollars, that has been falling for 20 years. Before we see people change over to something else we'll see hybrid solutions like the hybrid car. We're already seeing this. For example I get jobs delivered to me over high speed light waves but I frequently deliver them via Fedex. I process them on a micro processor when just a year ago I processed them using large electromechanical machines that used a lot of energy and consumables. An enormous number of things now shipped as atoms which could be shipped as bits. Exhibit A in the argument that it is physically impossible for China to displace the US as the world's biggest yuppies over the coming decades Since they don't have the huge infrastructure we have centered around oil their switching costs are far lower, it would be cheaper for them to institute an alternative as they grow. Think about how well cell phones rolled out in developing countries that lacked land lines. It would be difficult to see any developing country following in our footsteps in terms of our love of the automobile. First off China has a huge portion of its population in large cities where the automobile is less useful. Think of how many people you know in NYC who own a car. The one thing they have going for them is that they found out the hard way how destructive socialism and communism are. Communism impoverished 3-4 generations and is the primary reason for the huge disparity in wages. The US and Europe still seem intent on learning that lessen first hand. Right now China is attempting a sort of managed capitalism this will put more of a speed check on their growth than world energy supply.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next