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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.36+2.2%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (10299)6/24/2003 4:45:46 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (3) of 95521
 
This is just my take but we have had a lot of talk about the falling dollar and whether or not the current administration was in favor of a weak or strong dollar. There were a few weeks a while back when we were hearing something different every couple of days. This wasn't exactly adding any strength or confidence to the consumer. We also had a stretch where oil prices backed off and then soared right back up, which also would have dampened the spirits of the avg joe.

I firmly believe that it's the high energy prices, combined with the relatively low employment numbers that are causing a lot of the trouble and are weighing heavy on the minds of many. Also, with the constant talk of dropping rates even further by the FED, it's easy for businesses to put off locking in long term projects, as we wait to see if the interest is going to cost less. Is there going to be another round of refinancing? Is the cost of buying a home going to drop again?

These are some of the reasons why I hope the FED holds interest rates steady and hints that their next move would be to change to a tightening bias. While I think the initial reaction to a hold in rates might rattle the stock market for a day or 2, it would eventually become clear that the FED is starting to see light at the end of the dark tunnel. Expectations often are ahead of the tough current reality at the beginning of an up cycle.
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