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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: bcrafty who wrote (76602)6/25/2003 9:49:17 AM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
I think valuations have some use as a timing tool when individual issues get very stretched compared to their own trading history.

But as you point out - forget it as far as timing the broad market.

My favorite example - the Dow PE was 22 in 1946. Earnings doubled over the next two years, which you think would be bullish, but the market trended lower, giving the index a PE of 9.5 in 1948. Earnings and PEs really don't seem to have much to do with market direction, as far as I can tell, at least for timing purposes.
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